542 
FXUS63 KOAX 071726
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1226 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Tue May 7 2019

The main forecast concerns are timing the highest chances for
showers/thunderstorms and resulting rain amounts. Based on the
latest guidance and soil conditions from recent rain, felt that 
a flash flood watch was needed for parts of southeast NE. It has 
been a little drier in southwest IA, so did not issue a watch 
there for now - although rain amounts could be similar there to 
what we expect in southeast NE. 

The large scale pattern at 500 mb featured split flow over the 
western CONUS with a weak closed low over southern CA last
evening. The flow was confluent over the central and northern
Plains. A couple of jet streaks were noted at 300 mb, one over
northern WI/upper MI and another off the coast of northern Baja.
At 850 mb, moisture was pooled (dewpoints 10-15 degrees C) along 
and south of a front that stretched from central IL back into 
northeast NM. Surface analysis early this morning showed high
pressure over northern MN and the eastern Dakotas, and a nearly
stationary front located in about the same area as the 850 mb
front. Surface dewpoints were in the 50s and 60s over KS and MO.
Our winds were mainly from the northeast. 

For today, highest rain chances and highest rain amounts should be
mainly in two waves. One through about mid morning, with another
starting mid to late afternoon. With cloud cover in place, and
generally east or northeast winds, we do not expect big rise in
temperatures today. Look for highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s. 

We have been running high POPs for tonight through Wednesday and
have kept that trend. We will become more under the influence of
the southern stream mid level flow, and with energy ejecting
east/northeast across the area we should see showers and embedded
thunderstorms. Across the forecast area, expect rain amounts from
1 to 3 inches, but locally higher values are possible. Main chunks
of mid level energy should slide east of our area later Wednesday
night, but some light showers could linger into Thursday morning.
Models shows a varying track for a surface low that should move
northeast along the front. The location of that low will determine
if and how much of our area will get into the warm sector
Wednesday. For now, expect a fairly big range of highs Wednesday
afternoon, with values only around 50 near the northeast NE/ 
southeast SD border and ranging to upper 60s at the MO border. 

Expect lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s Wednesday night/Thursday
morning. Frost does not look very likely because winds will be 
too strong. Highs should be in the 50s for all of the area on
Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Tue May 7 2019

A ridge of high pressure at the surface should bring dry weather
as it builds over the region Thursday night through Friday. We
currently expect temperatures to fall into the mid 30s in
northeast NE for Friday morning, and mainly upper 30s to around 
40 in southeast NE and southwest IA. This could result in some
frost. 

Otherwise look for a warming trend with highs in the 60s Friday,
mid 60s to lower 70s on the weekend and then in the 70s for Monday
and Tuesday. Potential for rain looks fairly low except for
Saturday afternoon and evening. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

There should be a brief break from the showers early this
afternoon, however a few hit or miss showers may be possible.
Generally, lower ceilings will move in tonight as showers and
thunderstorms chances increase. Showers and a few thunderstorms
will linger through Wednesday morning. There may be some
improvement during the day wednesday, but showers will return in 
the afternoon and evening. 

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday 
     evening for NEZ066>068-078-088>093.

IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...HB