251 FXUS66 KPDT 071511 AAA AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 810 AM PDT Tue May 7 2019 UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION .SHORT TERM...Upper ridge remains centered offshore today with a northerly flow aloft. Models indicate 85kt jet over the forecast area and satellite showing fair amount of mid and high level clouds moving through. All models continue to show enough instability over the northern Blues and Wallowa county for a chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures similar to yesterday with 70s to lower 80s. 94 && .AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period with sct mid clouds and bkn-sct high clouds. A few buildups are likely over the eastern mountains this afternoon and evening east of the TAFS sites. Winds will be mainly nwly 7-12 kt this afternoon with a few higher gusts to 20 kt mainly at KDLS and KRDM. Winds will be light and terrain driven tonight. 78 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 220 AM PDT Tue May 7 2019/ SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday...An upper level ridge of high pressure will be centered off the Pacific Northwest coast over the next couple of days and then move more inland by Thursday. Meanwhile, this will place the forecast area under a north flow with some small shortwave disturbances dropping south through the northern Rockies and clipping the forecast area near the Idaho border with a slight chance of showers and or thunderstorms this afternoon and Wednesday afternoon. The ridge moving inland Thursday will push these disturbances further east and south of the forecast area ending any precipitation threat. Under this pattern temperatures will remain above normal. LONG TERM...Thursday night through Monday...High Pressure off the Pacific Northwest coast will keep a ridge over Washington and Oregon at the start of the period. This ridge will build into Saturday, before flattening a bit into Sunday. Additional ridging will anchor over the Great Basin on Monday and allow the ridge to restrengthen. Basically, this weather pattern keeps us very warm, with above normal temperatures, which could approach 90 degrees in some locations over the weekend. Also, rain chances are minimal. The GFS implies there could be some increased instability over the Oregon Cascades Saturday or Sunday, which could lead to thunder but this far out uncertainty remains high enough, and the airmass dry enough to not include any mention at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 75 47 75 46 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 78 49 77 48 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 82 52 82 52 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 80 51 80 54 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 81 51 81 50 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 76 49 77 48 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 75 41 75 43 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 70 43 70 43 / 10 10 20 20 GCD 71 42 70 42 / 0 0 0 10 DLS 80 52 82 54 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. && $$ 94