549 FXUS61 KBGM 070109 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Binghamton NY 909 PM EDT Mon May 6 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure will give us mainly clear and pleasant evening. A cold front from the Great Lakes will move into the area on Tuesday bringing more showers and scattered thunderstorms. Showers will linger along the front, especially in Pennsylvania, for Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 9 PM Monday... Clouds are pushing in from the west a bit quicker than previously expected, so increased cloud cover based latest satellite imagery. Have left PoP as is for now, but some of the meso-models are indicating the showers may be more likely across the north tomorrow morning than currently in the forecast. As of 610 PM Monday... Beautiful evening and forecast remains on-track. Made only some minor adjustments to temperatures this evening to align with current observations/trends. Cold front will slowly drift southward and cross Lake Ontario overnight, bringing showers into northwest forecast area around daybreak. Previous Discussion... Stratus is lingering over the Catskills and Poconos this afternoon despite the drier air and clear skies just to the west. Intense late spring sun with the dry air will continue to erode the clouds bringing slow clearing to the east. Flat and fast upper flow with a weak surface trough overnight will slowly spread moisture and clouds into the area. Initial support for any showers is very weak so expect any showers to hold off until Tuesday when a stronger upper wave and daytime instability will increase the coverage of showers. Surface based Cape is limited, around 300 J/kg across the southern tier into NEPA so with the upper support, a few non severe thunderstorms are likely. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure builds into and moves across the region in this period. The main result looks to be a mostly sunny day north of the Southern Tier of NY. However, a stationary front across PA may provide enough lift for a spotty shower in NE PA with clouds spreading into the Southern Tier. Highs should reach 60 across most of the region as well. With clear skies, temperatures Wednesday night should fall fairly rapidly with radiational cooling into the 40's with some locations getting into the 30's. Highs were lowered a few degrees from model guidance given the showers and clouds in NE PA. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Thursday and Thursday night: A low pressure system will track from the Central Plains into the Great Lakes. Moisture will overrun the warm front resulting in several rounds of rainfall Thursday and Thursday night with chances increasing throughout the day. Initially the isentropic lift and low pressure location favor northern portions of the Finger Lakes eastward along the NY Thruway to see the most rainfall of an inch or more by Friday morning. Being further away from the best lift and dynamics should allow NE PA to see more breaks with less total rainfall. Steadier rain looks to keep most locations in the 40's and 50's for highs on Thursday. Temperatures won't fall much Thursday night with the warm frontal passage and could even rise in a few spots. Friday and Friday night: With the low heading into the Great Lakes we get into the warm sector. Steadier rain looks to clear out in the morning with the potential for some breaks in the clouds ahead of a cold front for a time on Friday. A fair number of ensembles are showing some CAPE advection along the cold front with another round of showers ahead of the cold front. With that said, thunder chances will be maintained. Given favorable amounts of shear, strong to severe storms will be possible if enough instability either through steep lapse rates or mixed layer CAPE is realized. Locally Heavy rainfall will be a possibility as well with PW values over an inch. The heavy rainfall may result in localized small stream and poor drainage flooding especially given a primed ground from rain on Thursday. Temperatures should warm well into the 60's depending on any breaks in the clouds Friday afternoon. Saturday through Monday: High pressure looks to build into the region on Saturday with clearing that lasts into Saturday night. More model and ensemble differences are present in the Sunday/Monday timeframe. These include timing of next cold front and shower chances and if any low pressure rides northeast into the region from our south. Temperatures should range from the 40's to around 60. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Will start off the period with mostly clear skies, however clouds will be on the increase from the NW overnight as a cold front approaches. This front will spread showers with likely MVFR ceilings into RME and SYR by morning and showers/ceilings will spread southeast through the day. Further south at BGM and AVP, there will be a chance for possibly thunderstorms mixed with the showers in the afternoon, however, confidence is still too low to mention in the TAFs at this time. The front should clear the area near the end of the TAF period with improving conditions. Outlook... Tuesday night...Some lingering moisture behind the cold front, could keep MVFR ceilings to persist overnight. Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Thursday...Restrictions expected in rain. Friday...Chance of rain and thunderstorms. Flight restrictions likely. Saturday...VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DGM NEAR TERM...DGM/MPK SHORT TERM...MWG LONG TERM...MWG AVIATION...MPK