740 FXUS61 KBGM 052346 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Binghamton NY 746 PM EDT Sun May 5 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A persistent zone of weak low pressure will continue the areas of light rain or drizzle this evening before high pressure takes over late tonight. Drier weather will return Monday. More showers are expected with a cold front passing through the area on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 225 PM Update... Weak, but highly moist, flow into an inverted trof laying across central NY will keep aiding the generation of areas of light rain and drizzle in a narrow band extending from the Southern Tier to the Catskills tonight. Rain shield from departing low pressure over the Delmarva will gradually move out of NEPA this evening, with lingering drizzle possible. Nearly all of the mesoscale CAM models have picked up on this subtle feature and keep generating radar simulated echoes and corresponding QPF through at least 06Z, and in some cases even into early Monday morning. Will split the difference on that and bump PoPs up across the area this evening, then diminish to just a ribbon of patchy drizzle ending just before daybreak. Ridging from the surface to H7 finally becomes established Monday morning with models suggesting a decent push of dry and sinking air as the ridge axis amplifies ahead of the next frontal system. After perhaps a slow start, much of the area should turn out dry with decreasing clouds and likely a fair amount of sunshine in the afternoon. Highs tomorrow in the upper 60s to lower 70s after a night in the upper 40s. Fairly status quo early Monday night before models bring in a cold front bearing southeast from Ontario. If the consensus timing of this front remains true to today's solutions, all but the Finger Lakes region should get through Monday night dry. Deeper moisture convergence arrives between 09z-12Z Tuesday from PEO-RME and we should see showers developing in that time frame. Frontal boundary and showers then spread south on Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 315 PM Update... A cold front will initially just sag into the area Tuesday, but as a Canadian upper trough amplifies the flow will more successfully push the front through. We will be in the right exit region of the jet, which is unsupportive. However, timing of frontal passage will also allow a little bit of instability to materialize in Northeast PA and perhaps slightly into the bordering NY counties, where highs will be mid 60s to lower 70s. Thus in addition to a batch of showers, some thunder could occur, but not strong. Rain amounts will generally range from about a tenth to quarter of an inch will not be a problem. To the north, with an earlier frontal passage, temperatures will only reach upper 50s to near 60. Though showers could briefly linger in the Poconos-Catskills Tuesday evening, the weather looks mainly dry Tuesday night through Wednesday, as a cool Canadian high builds into the region. Expect gradually decreasing clouds Tuesday night with light northerly winds less than 5 mph. Cool with overnight lows 35-45 in most locations. Remaining dry on Wednesday, with initial sunshine being overtaken by increasing clouds in afternoon as a boundary approaches from the southwest. Overall a welcome though temporary break with highs mostly in the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... 315 PM Update... Main concern will be a moist period Thursday into Friday, with locally heavy rainfall possible. A low pressure system will eject from the Plains into the Midwest Wednesday night, with warm air advection well ahead of it causing thickening clouds and eventually developing rainfall for our area late Wednesday night into especially Thursday. There is still some uncertainty for how long it takes the column to moisten, but as the low tracks closer into lower Michigan Thursday and then Ontario Thursday night, it will indeed get quite wet in our region. The system will be riding a broad southwest flow aloft with moisture access to the Gulf of Mexico. That being said, near the surface flow will be persistent out of the southeast, locking us in cool low level air and holding temperatures only in the 50s to near 60 Thursday. By later Thursday night or early Friday, models depict our area briefly getting into the actual warm sector of this deepening low pressure system as increasing southerly flow advects deeper moisture and warmer temperatures north. Therefore, temperatures likely will not fall much Thursday night and could even rise a little late, especially across the Finger Lakes region. Sometime early to midday Friday the cold front of the system is expected to push across the area bringing showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Too early to know how strong the convection could be, especially with the trend towards a slightly earlier frontal passage, but this will need to be monitored. At this point the dominant concern appears to be potential for locally heavy rainfall, and we have added this mention to our Hazardous Weather Outlook to raise awareness. Our recent wet pattern pre- conditioning soils will not be helpful in terms of ability to absorb this additional rainfall which could lead to some potential flooding. Cooler and drier weather appears probable for early in the weekend, yet the overall pattern remains a busy one with another possible system towards Sunday-Sunday night. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 730 pm update... Flying forecast remains difficult with poor confidence through tonight given highly variable ceiling, visibility, and weather conditions across the area. Conditions will worsen or remain fuel alternate at all sites. Light rain and drizzle will end this evening but conditions will continue down. IFR is likely at ITH/BGM/ELM the entire night with low cigs and lowering vsbys. RME may also fall to IFR cigs late tonight. Monday improving conditions at all sites starting between 12 and 14z. Becoming VFR by 16z with the last sites expected to be ITH/BGM as usual. Winds will be light out of the east this evening. During the overnight light and variable to calm. Monday late morning winds become northwest around 5 kts, then remain there through the afternoon. Outlook... Monday night...Mainly VFR. Tuesday...chance of restrictions as another cold front with rain showers drops across the area. Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Thursday...restrictions expected in rain. Friday...Chance of rain and thunderstorms. Flight restrictions likely. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JAB NEAR TERM...JAB SHORT TERM...MDP LONG TERM...MDP AVIATION...TAC