749 FXUS62 KCHS 051938 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 338 PM EDT Sun May 5 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms are likely today ahead of a cold front which will move through tonight. Drier high pressure will then prevail through the middle of the week before unsettled weather returns later in the week as another cold front approaches. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Until Sunset: The cold front is just west of our forecast area, continuing its trek towards us. Instability and moisture ahead of the front is bringing showers and thunderstorms. Though, CAMs have kept the worst of the convection to our south. This is confirmed by afternoon radar imagery. Additionally, most of the energy appears as it's being diverted from our area into this southern convection. This lowers our convective potential even further. Radar, satellite, and mesoscale analysis all back this up as we're having a hard time getting any lightning. The risk of severe thunderstorms continues to lower with each passing hour, assuming we get any thunderstorms in the upcoming hours. Tonight: The cold front will move through our area this evening, passing offshore overnight. Any remaining showers will quickly come to an end with the frontal passage. High pressure and clearing skies will then build in from our west. Lows will be in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Models in good agreement during this forecast period which leads to a highly confident forecast. A weak upper level trough will move off the coast Monday morning, then broad westerly to northwesterly upper level flow will prevail into Tuesday, before upper level heights rise as an upper level ridge builds over the southeastern United States on Wednesday. Surface high pressure will build into the area and then eventually off the East Coast by late in the period. This will result a more stable atmosphere across the area especially by Tuesday and Wednesday. Maintained a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms along the sea breeze mainly in southeast South Carolina Monday afternoon and into early Monday evening as low level convergence interacts with a bit of remaining instability. Both high and low temperatures will be a few degrees above normal through Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Moderate confidence this period. Atlantic high pressure should prevail with mainly dry weather until late week when moisture and and forcing increase with the approach of a cold front. For now we kept rain chances minimal but will likely need to be raised at some point once confidence increases. Temperatures will stay above normal through the period, especially lows which will be near record high levels at times. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 18Z TAFs: A cold front is approaching from the west, bringing gusty WSW winds through sunset. Additionally, TSRA and SHRA will bring impacts to the TAF sites through sunset. We are maintaining the TEMPO for KSAV, but it's possible this may still be overdone. More adjustments will be made as radar trends develop. By sunset, winds will ease and the convection will dissipate. Extended Aviation Outlook: Mainly VFR through Friday. && .MARINE... Tonight: An approaching cold front is bringing gusty southwest winds to the coastal waters. We have Small Craft Advisories for the Charleston waters and the Charleston harbor into this evening, mainly for wind gusts around 25 kt. Though, a few 6 footers are possible around 20 nm for the Charleston waters this evening. Additionally, a small area of 6 ft seas are possible across the GA waters near 60 nm this evening. But the coverage in both area and time does not appear to be enough to warrant a Small Craft Advisory. The cold front will move through the coastal waters this evening, becoming located to our east by midnight. Winds will shift to the NW and ease behind the front, especially after midnight. Seas will generally range from 3-5 ft this evening, subsiding slowly overnight. Monday through Friday: High pressure builds into the into Wednesday and then shifts well to the east of the area as a cold front approaches the area on Friday. Fairly tranquil conditions are expected through Wednesday with winds up 10 to 15 knots near the coast and in the various harbors each afternoon associated with the sea breeze circulation. Otherwise, winds generally near or below 10 knots and seas no greater than 2 to 3 feet. Winds and seas look to increase just a bit from Wednesday night into Friday, but remaining well below Small Craft Advisory levels. Rip Currents: There is a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents for all of our beaches through this evening. && .CLIMATE... Record high min temps for May 5: KCHS: 70/last set in 1996 KCXM: 73/last set in 2012 KSAV: 70/last set in 2012 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for AMZ330. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ350. && $$ NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...RJB LONG TERM...RJB AVIATION...NED/RJB MARINE...NED/RJB CLIMATE...