710 FXUS62 KMHX 050135 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 935 PM EDT Sat May 4 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will approach from the west Sunday then move offshore late Sunday night. High pressure will build over the region early next week, then slide offshore mid to late week. && .NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/... As of 935 PM Sat...Latest radar imagery shows earlier convection now morphing into an area of moderate stratiform rain just to the west of the forecast area. Will continue with higher pops across the far western portions for the next few hours, though expect bulk of precip to remain west of the forecast area. Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms expected late tonight into early Sun, with HRRR showing best chances towards sunrise. Widespread low clouds is likely to develop after midnight in the very moist low level airmass. Muggy overnight with lows in the upper 60s to around 70 deg. SW breeze should limit any fog threat. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... As of 345 PM Saturday...A cold front approach the area tomorrow and is expected to push through the area late Sunday night. Deep layer SW flow will bring a warm and humid airmass while a mid-level shortwave moves the area which can bring additional forcing for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon and evening hours with added frontal forcing. A few stronger storms are possible as CAPE values are AOA 1500-2000 J/kg, LI around -5 and shear increasing to around 35 kt. SPC continues to indicate a marginal risk of severe storms. Temps continue to be several degrees above normal this period with highs Sun in the mid 80s inland to upper 70s along the coast. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 310 PM Saturday...A cold front will push through the area late Sunday before high pressure builds into the area early next week ushering in dry and warm weather. An unsettled pattern may return mid to late week with high pressure moving offshore. Sunday night...Cold front will be pushing across our area at the start of the period and is forecast to be offshore overnight, taking showers and thunderstorms with it. Lows expected in the upper 50s to lower 60s with a slightly cooler airmass advecting in with northerly flow behind the front. Monday through Tuesday night...High pressure builds into the region early next week with ridging building aloft bringing dry weather and somewhat cooler temps and lower dewpoints. Highs Mon expected in the upper 70s to around 80 inland to around 70 to mid 70s NE and coastal sections; evening lows expected in the upper 50s inland to lower 60s coast. Increasing heights and plenty of sun Tuesday will aid in pushing highs into the mid 80s inland, upper 70s coast. Lows Tue night expected in the low to mid 60s with southerly return flow as the high slides offshore. Wednesday through Saturday...Uncertainly in the mid to late week forecast remains high with the latest 12Z model suite as their agreement and consistency remains poor across the Southeast regarding the strength and timing of an upper level ridge. The GFS remains flatter with the ridging and moves it offshore quicker Wed bringing near- zonal flow across the area with several weak impulses moving through the flow aloft bringing periods unsettled weather across the region. The ECMWF suggests stronger ridging will lift these impulses to the north with generally dry conditions across the area. With the surface high offshore bringing warm and humid conditions across the area and dewpoints well into the 60s, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day and made little change to precip chances - chance PoPs through peak heating in the afternoon and slight chance PoPs other times. Temps look to be several degrees above normal this period with highs in the mid to upper 80s inland and upper 70s/lower 80s coast; lows in the upper 60s to near 70. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term /through Sun/... As of 935 PM Sat...VFR conditions currently across the TAF sites early this evening, and should prevail through at least 06z. Area of light to moderate rain may impact the sites, mainly ISO and PGV through 04z. Increasing moisture overnight could support MVFR ceilings developing after 06z, though SW breeze should limit any fog threat. Any MVFR cigs could linger through mid morning before improving to VFR as stronger mixing develops. SW wind gusts 20-25 kt Sun afternoon ahead of the front. Scattered to numerous showers and storms expected Sun afternoon into early evening, with periods of sub-VFR possible. Long Term /Sunday night through Thursday/... As of 315 PM Saturday...Sub-VFR ceilings possible behind the front Sunday night into early Monday. High pressure builds into the region early next week with predominantly VFR conditions expected. Showers and tstms may return Wed afternoon but model consistency remains poor as we move into the middle of the week. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Sunday/... As of 935 PM Sat...Latest buoy obs show S/SW winds 10-20 kt, with seas 2-5 ft, highest across the outer central waters. SW winds 10 to 20 kt overnight, peaking at 15-25 kt with gusts up to 30 knots Sunday afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. Seas building to 3-5 ft overnight. Seas will peak 4 to 7 ft Sunday afternoon south of Oregon Inlet. SCAs have been issued for coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet and the Pamlico Sound starting Sunday mid-morning. Could be close for the northern waters, but will next shift take a closer look. Long Term /Sunday night through Thursday/... As of 325 PM Friday...Cold front will be moving across the waters to start the period with SW winds initially 15-20 knots (20-25 knots possible outer cntrl waters) becoming N around 10-20 kt behind the front, then veering to NE Mon at 10-15 knots. Seas expected to be 4-6 feet at the start of the period subsiding to 3-4 feet by Monday morning - thus SCA conditions expected into the overnight hours. NE winds diminish to around 10 kt or less Mon night into early Tues and then continue to veer to E to SE through the day, becoming S to SW Tue night and Wed as high pressure slides offshore. Seas expected to mainly be around 2-4 ft but could see up to 5 ft at times, especially across the central waters. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ156- 158. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ135. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CQD/BM SHORT TERM...JME LONG TERM...DAG/SK/MS AVIATION...CQD/BM/MS MARINE...CQD/BM/MS