767 FXUS65 KSLC 042202 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 402 PM MDT Sat May 4 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Warmer conditions are be expected into Monday. A modest increase in moisture will spawn limited shower and thunderstorm activity over the higher terrain this weekend through Monday. Unsettled and somewhat cooler weather will develop Tuesday through Thursday. && .SHORT TERM (Through 00Z Wednesday)... A stream of mid-level moisture and confluence see on WV imagery is oriented west-east across central Utah. Forecast soundings show high LCL heights near 10kft given very dry air near the surface. Meager CAPE values above this is resulting in widespread diurnal cumulus across much of central Utah with isolated to scattered showers and few rumbles of thunder. Breezy and erratic outflow winds will be the main threat from any of these high-based showers and thunderstorms given the high inverted-V soundings. Showers and thunderstorms will diminish this evening given the loss of daytime heating, and should result in a mostly dry night across state with clearing skies. On Sunday and Monday, this same axis of moisture and convergence will pivot northward across northern Utah as the mid-level low seen off the California coast today makes it way into southern Nevada by Monday. The result will be continued diurnal build up of cumulus and isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms with a gusty wind potential. Showers and thunderstorms will see a break each night with the diurnal cycle. Outside of these isolated to scattered showers, expect mainly dry and warm weather with temperatures running 5-10 degrees above normal. On Tuesday, the aforementioned mid-level low will track across northern Arizona while becoming an open wave. Meanwhile a secondary northern stream trough will dive through the Pacific Northwest. The increase in moisture, forcing and increased lapse rates aloft will result in more widespread to numerous showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. The increase in moisture and light steering flow through the cloud depth could result in localized heavy rainfall. .LONG TERM (After 00Z Wednesday)... GFS & ECMWF (both deterministic and ensemble means) are in good agreement with the overall pattern for the latter half of the work week over the Great Basin and Intermountain West. A closed low over SoCal is forecasted to be pulled into an longwave trough encapsulating the entire central Rockies around midweek. We'll need to wait a few more days to nail down details, but the general theme is cool, early-spring conditions with a chance of precipitation for much of the latter half of the workweek. As of today, deterministic models bring unseasonably cold air into the far northern Utah and southwest Wyoming from Thursday onward, supporting a possibility of snow for areas such as Bear Lake and Evanston, and perhaps bringing snow levels as low as 5,000 feet depending on how the low evolves. Additionally, the placement of the low Thursday suggests a potential for strong easterly winds for the northern Wasatch Front. Also, Northern Utah valleys could see a couple frosty mornings and perhaps a hard freeze later in the work week if skies clear over the north for a period as currently suggested by models. Lastly, thunderstorm potential increases through midweek, especially over central and southern Utah towards later in the workweek. Stay tuned for details, but for now the weather pattern appears to be much more active for our area later next week. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will continue at the SLC terminal tonight through tomorrow. Cumulus buildups including isolated thunderstorms may impact south and east approaches through about 02Z this evening. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Church LONG TERM...Van Cleave AVIATION...Van Cleave For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity For frequently asked questions about the Area Forecast Discussion visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.php