556 
FXUS64 KMEG 041943
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
243 PM CDT Sat May 4 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Short term...what should be the final area of rain is currently 
moving through the Midsouth this hour. This precipitation was 
generally along and just west of a weak cold front which was 
slowly pushing east. A surface wave on the boundary just east of
the ARKLAMISS will cause the front to advance to the Tennessee 
River/Alabama border by about 6pm. A few moderate showers were 
also seen on radar to the southeast of the Memphis metro...but as
for now no lightning was observed. Removed the threat of any 
strong or severe storm for northeast Mississippi as instability 
remains low. Most locations will pick up around a half to one inch
of precipitation by sunset. Temperatures for most had reached 
into the low 70s but showers had dropped them back into the 60s. 
Significant cloud cover is expected to linger in the east tonight
with patchy fog and some drizzle forming after midnight.

Sunday and Monday...mainly dry this period with drizzle in the 
far east early. Clouds may be slow to exit this region as 
well...but morning lows in the 50s should climb to the low and 
mid 70s for highs. A north breeze will usher in 50F dewpoints. 
Winds will shift southerly Monday bringing 60F+ dewpoints back 
into the region and temperature highs into the low 80s. Milder 
lows Monday night with clouds building across the north.

Tuesday through Friday...not much change to the forecast this
period. Models have some slight timing differences but capture a
return to a wet upper level pattern. That is...a deepening trough
over the Rockies and a slowly building ridge over the East. Thus 
the Midsouth will be in the path for deeper moisture and the
effects from a series of shortwave troughs. The first will cross 
the Midsouth Tuesday but lift will be limited...so convection 
appears isolated and subsevere. The next will arrive Wednesday 
night or Thursday morning depending on the faster GFS vs. Euro. 
Associated with this wave will be a deepening area of low pressure
in Kansas along a cold front and Dryline that could generate an 
afternoon/evening MCS. Both models show a 45-50kt LLJ that could 
easily sustain the complex as it crosses the Ozarks. If it holds 
together it would slide into the Midsouth before sunrise 
Thursday. Later in the day lift from this shortwave and the
approaching front would then couple with any lingering outflows 
to spark off a second round of severe storms. So for now have 
placed a low confidence signal of severe weather in the afternoon
HWO. Unfortunately the aforementioned frontal boundary will stall
over the Midsouth to provide more wet weather Friday. Overall 
rainfall amounts these four days could reach 3-5 inches. 

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF cycle

Low clouds will remain over much of the region this afternoon and
this evening. Light rain will continue to spread across the region
this afternoon as well with isolated thunderstorms possible over
portions of northeast Mississippi. Conditions will slowly improve
starting tonight and continuing through Sunday morning. Winds will
be mainly from the northwest at 5 to 10 knots for much of the
forecast period.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$