595 FXUS65 KABQ 040930 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 330 AM MDT Sat May 4 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind will develop and track eastward across much of eastern New Mexico this afternoon into early evening. Across central and western areas, dry conditions will continue with perhaps an isolated gusty shower near the higher terrain during the afternoon or evening. The focus for thunderstorms will shift to the far southeast plains on Sunday but the overall coverage will be significantly less than today. Daytime temperatures this weekend will reflect a nice warming trend that will continue into Monday. Thereafter, a cooler and increasingly active pattern is indicated beginning Tuesday with multiple waves of showers and thunderstorms expected mid to late week. Dryline thunderstorms are possible Monday and Tuesday across far eastern New Mexico. && .DISCUSSION... Low stratus with patches of fog and light drizzle to characterize the weather for much of northeast and east-central New Mexico through the remainder of the morning. Similar conditions developing/expanding along the lower Pecos River Valley. Surface dew points are not quite as impressive as 24-hour ago, but the associated dryline will sharpen and slowly advance eastward as mixing commences beneath a moderate westerly flow aloft. Daytime heating in the presence of steep, nearly dry adiabatic mid-level lapse rates along/east of the dryline should be more than sufficient to support an active crop of thunderstorms. Models still advertise weak 500mb height rises over central/western areas today as subtle short wave ridging indicated. This would argue for slight veering of the mid- level flow downstream over the eastern NM plains enhancing directional shear despite surface to 6km wind speeds that will be below early May standards. As a result, expect at least a few severe storms to develop after 20Z or so possibly expanding in coverage with eastward extent late in the day and early evening. But a lack of strong instability may keep overall coverage of severe in check. Low level moisture/dryline expected to slosh back westward tonight into Sunday morning, but probably not as far west as past two nights. Much will depend on how convection evolves through tonight with outflow boundaries possibly pushing deeper moisture farther west than what models suggest. For now, have focused low chance PoPs across the northeast (mountain convection drifting east-northeast) and southeast where deeper boundary layer moisture will reside east of the dryline. Strengthening southwest flow aloft going into Monday ahead of a deep low moving into southern California. Dryline looks to sharpen once again near or just west of the NM/TX line in the afternoon/early evening. More interesting scenario to play out Tuesday into Tuesday night, as the upper low slowly tracks into western Arizona. Pattern recognition suggests the dryline could set up farther west than what the models currently suggest. The ECMWF is the farthest west with the dryline on Tuesday but generally keeps associated convection along NM/TX line. Did not go too crazy with this scenario but definitely something to watch. Upper low to open up and lift east-northeast Tuesday night into Wednesday with a negatively tilted orientation. 700mb temps briefly drop to around -1C across west-central/northwest NM as cold pool aloft passes overhead. Looking at a return of wet snow to the highest elevations during this period. In its wake, a seasonably strong backdoor front to plunge south and west later Wednesday into Wednesday night with a reinforcing surge of unseasonably cool air for late week. The ECMWF is a bit faster and stronger with the initial front, but both the ECMWF and GFS suggest a classic moist backdoor front pattern Thursday into Friday as yet another low pressure system organizes off the West Coast. Suffice to say that big changes are in store for mid to late week with daytime temperatures trending back 10 to 20 degrees below seasonal with waves of precipitation to include high elevation snow. kj && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry westerly flow continues through the weekend and into early next week. Western New Mexico, as well as the Rio Grande Valley, will remain dry through at least Monday night, with near to above average temperatures, areas of fair to poor overnight humidity recoveries and occasionally breezy conditions in the afternoons. The driest period for the western half of the state appears to be Sunday through Monday when high Haines is widespread and 6-10 hrs of single digit humidities are forecast to occur each day through the Middle Rio Grande Valley. From the central mountain chain over the eastern plains, low level moisture will continue to slosh back and forth. Of the scattered showers and storms expected over the east this afternoon and early this evening, a few storms, especially along and east of the Pecos Valley, may become strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds. Convection should be more limited to mainly the east central and northeast Sunday into Monday. A couple of hours of very localized critical fire weather conditions remain possible Sunday and Monday afternoons northeast and east central. Critical conditions may be more widespread Tuesday afternoon over NMZ106 and 107 if the incoming upper low slows down as some models are suggesting, resulting in stronger southwest winds. Wetter and cooler weather with temperatures falling below normal are forecast area wide for mid to late next week. && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE Dry w-nwly flow aloft with sct cirrus. Low level moisture making a run westward and may reach the east slopes of the central mt chain between 09-12Z, with widespread MVFR to IFR cigs, patchy fog and light rain extending across ne and east central NM and obscuring terrain. Conditions to improve from west to east over ern NM between 14-17Z. Isold to sct showers and tstms to develop over the Sangre de Cristo mts aft 18Z and track into ne and east central NM where a few strong to severe storms with large hail and wnd gusts to 50kt are possible. Dry from the RGV westward. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 75 42 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 69 35 73 37 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 70 40 74 42 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 75 35 77 37 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 71 35 73 36 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 74 35 77 36 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 73 40 76 40 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 81 48 82 47 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 65 33 68 35 / 0 0 5 0 Los Alamos...................... 68 47 73 50 / 20 10 0 0 Pecos........................... 68 43 72 45 / 10 10 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 64 34 68 37 / 10 5 5 0 Red River....................... 55 30 59 32 / 10 10 10 0 Angel Fire...................... 61 26 65 27 / 10 10 5 0 Taos............................ 69 32 73 35 / 10 5 5 0 Mora............................ 67 38 71 40 / 20 10 10 0 Espanola........................ 73 44 78 47 / 10 10 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 69 45 73 47 / 10 5 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 73 42 77 44 / 10 5 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 77 50 81 52 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 78 50 81 53 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 81 50 84 53 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 78 50 82 52 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 80 46 83 48 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 77 49 81 52 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 84 51 87 51 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 71 46 74 48 / 5 0 5 0 Tijeras......................... 73 46 77 48 / 5 0 5 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 75 38 79 40 / 5 5 5 0 Clines Corners.................. 70 42 74 44 / 10 10 5 0 Gran Quivira.................... 76 46 79 48 / 5 0 5 0 Carrizozo....................... 79 51 81 54 / 5 0 5 0 Ruidoso......................... 72 46 75 47 / 10 10 10 5 Capulin......................... 68 39 74 41 / 30 20 20 0 Raton........................... 72 36 77 39 / 20 10 20 0 Springer........................ 71 38 76 40 / 20 10 20 0 Las Vegas....................... 69 41 75 43 / 20 10 5 0 Clayton......................... 71 45 79 49 / 40 30 20 5 Roy............................. 69 43 76 46 / 30 20 10 0 Conchas......................... 76 49 85 52 / 30 20 5 0 Santa Rosa...................... 74 47 84 50 / 30 20 5 5 Tucumcari....................... 77 49 86 52 / 30 20 10 5 Clovis.......................... 73 51 82 53 / 40 30 20 10 Portales........................ 75 51 84 53 / 30 30 20 10 Fort Sumner..................... 75 51 83 53 / 30 20 10 5 Roswell......................... 82 57 90 58 / 20 20 20 10 Picacho......................... 77 51 83 53 / 30 10 20 10 Elk............................. 76 49 79 50 / 20 10 20 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 41