857 
FXUS62 KJAX 031304
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
904 AM EDT Fri May 3 2019

.UPDATE...
A broad area of low pressure was located from Gainesville to
Jacksonville and over the western Atlantic along the coast of
southeast Georgia this morning. The area of low pressure will lift
north and northeastward through the day. Scattered showers were 
across northeast Florida, and showers and storms will become more 
widespread with daytime heating. Light steering flow this morning
will become easterly across most of the area this afternoon as the
area of low pressure moves northward. The 12Z sounding this
morning showed precipitable water values around 1.9 inches, steep
lapse rates in the 700-500mb layer, and even some drier air and speed
shear in the hail growth layer. Forecast soundings, however, show
the upper level moistening through the day. Deep moisture through
the freezing level will lead to efficient warm rain processes, and
locally heavy rainfall is possible. As temperatures warm to the
low to mid 80s this afternoon, around 2500 J/kg SBCAPE is 
forecast, and a few strong storms can be expected, with wet 
microbursts the main threat. 

&&

.AVIATION...
Numerous showers and scattered storms are expected across the area
today due to a broad area of low pressure over the region. Periods
of MVFR/IFR conditions due to showers and storms are expected.
Winds will shift from northeast to southwest across the region as
the area of low pressure lifts northward. 

&&

.MARINE...
Area of low pressure across northeast Florida and coastal waters
this morning will lift northward this afternoon. SCEC conditions
will continue for the offshore waters due to southerly winds 15-20
knots and seas 4-6 feet. 

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  86  68  88  68 /  60  20  20  30 
SSI  81  70  85  71 /  60  20  20  10 
JAX  85  68  89  69 /  70  30  20  10 
SGJ  83  68  86  69 /  70  30  20   0 
GNV  84  67  88  68 /  60  20  10  10 
OCF  85  67  89  68 /  50  20  10  20 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Kennedy/Zibura/Cordero