440 FXUS61 KBTV 030727 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Burlington VT 327 AM EDT Fri May 3 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A shortwave trough moving out of the Great Lakes this morning will bring another round of light rain to the North Country today. Drier and warmer weather is expected for the weekend with only a slight chance for showers across the southern half of Vermont on Sunday. Unsettled weather returns next weak with several chances for more rain. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 327 AM EDT Friday...Overall, no significant changes from the previous forecast idea with low clouds and areas of fog across the region this morning giving way to a quick moving shortwave trough which will pull out of the Great Lakes and traverse the North Country today. Associated light rain will shift into the St. Lawrence Valley shortly after sunrise, and spread eastward across the forecast area during the mid/late morning hours. Generally anticipating a 3-6hr period of rain at any one location with the bulk of precipitation exiting east of the Connecticut River by 8-10PM. Relatively light boundary layer flow and abundance of low clouds will keep temps cool again today, though slightly warmer than yesterday with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s from the Champlain Valley westward, and mid/upper 40s east of the Green Mountain spine. By midnight, precipitation should generally have ended with the best large-scale forcing exiting east, but little to no clearing is expected as model soundings indicate another subsidence inversion setting up which will trap low level moisture and stratus through the night and into a good chunk of Saturday morning before breaking in the afternoon. Light winds Friday night and full cloud cover will keep temps slightly milder than normal in the 40s, and expect a struggle for highs to reach the mid/upper 50s Saturday depending on when the sun decides to reveal itself. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 327 AM EDT Friday...Trends in the data support the idea that much of the area should remain dry Saturday night into Sunday. Main shortwave trough passes well to the south keeping the majority of precipitation across southern New England and a sharp gradient on the northern fringes. Have gone with a slight chance of showers for Rutland and Windsor counties late Saturday night into Sunday with dry weather elsewhere. Lows Saturday night will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s and highs on Sunday will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 327 AM EDT Friday...Unfortunately longer range data has quite a bit of timing differences. At this time feel Monday will be the warmest day with highs in the 60s everywhere...but a cold front moving across the area will bring a chance of showers to much of the area. Will have to keep an eye on the potential for thunder with this system. Otherwise looking at dry weather on Tuesday with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Southwest flow aloft becomes established for Wednesday and Thursday and it looks like there will be better chances for showers both days with highs generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 06Z Saturday..Widespread IFR/MVFR will continue through the overnight hours and into this morning with some slight improvement to MVFR expected during the day when rain arrives after 12Z. Light rain continues through the day with ceilings and visibilities MVFR, then tapers off after 00Z with IFR ceilings returning for Friday night. Winds will be light south/southeasterly less than 10kts through the period. Outlook... Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lahiff NEAR TERM...Lahiff SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Evenson AVIATION...Lahiff