506 
FXUS63 KTOP 022348
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
648 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019

Upstream water vapor imagery shows a few waves of note...one over
the northern Rockies, another into the Front Range, and a third
entering the Baja. The split flow regime makes the impacts of
these waves on the local area somewhat uncertain, but the northern
waves appear to congeal and pass late tonight into early Friday 
with the southern wave lagging several hours later. Mid-level 
isentropic lift over the surface ridge should bring at least 
scattered showers late tonight into Friday morning, with 
instability much more muted than recent days as MUCAPE values 
above 100 J/kg are very hard to come by. PW values are likewise 
lower and precip amounts should be much smaller and keep flooding 
potential very limited. The surface ridge axis remains over the 
region and keeps winds light. With the limited mixing and 
potential for precip to linger into the midday, have trended 
Friday's highs down a bit. 

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019

If skies clear early enough Friday night, there will be potential
for fog development, particularly in northern areas near the 
ridge axis. Saturday remains the best chance to be dry over the 
coming days with subsidence and a relatively drier troposphere. 
High clouds should increase Saturday night as another southern 
stream trough moves into southern California. The departing 
surface ridge under zonal flow aloft may allow for some precip 
formation Saturday night into early Sunday. Increasing 
instability brings at least seasonal diurnal thunderstorm chances 
for Sunday. A surface boundary tied to the northern branch may 
approach the area Monday afternoon and evening, but the more 
apparent thunderstorm chances look to be Tuesday into Wednesday as
a stronger wave brings the northern baroclinic zone south and the
southern branch wave enters the central and southern Plains. Will
keep Thursday dry for now but a slower trend of these feature 
would not be surprising. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019

The primary concern through the TAF period is low CIGS and
scattered rain showers. CIGS are expected to lower to MVFR near
09-10Z overnight as isolated to scattered rain showers overspread
the area. Rain is expected to remain light, therefore do not
anticipate VSBY issues. MVFR CIGS are expected to persist through
the end of the TAF period. Winds will remain light and from a 
northeasterly direction.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Baerg