217 FXUS64 KMEG 021730 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1230 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019 .UPDATE... Updated for the 18Z Aviation Discussion && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1145 AM CDT Thu May 2 2019/ UPDATE... Late morning update... Latest KNQA radar sweep shows a cluster of thunderstorms lifting north across northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel at this hour. These storms will lift north of the area within the hour. We will likely see light showers through early afternoon west of the river, but we should see a break from thunderstorms until late afternoon. To our southwest, a developing shortwave is seen in GOES Water Vapor Imagery over western Arkansas. The CAMs have not captured the current convection well this morning, although they seem to be trending better in the last two hours. At least 2 CAMs suggest a MCV developing in eastern Arkansas around 2 to 3 PM. If this feature does manifest itself, the real question is whether strong and severe thunderstorms develop, especially in the slight risk area. The severe threat is highly contingent on if the atmosphere can recover ahead of this feature. If the atmosphere does adequately rebound, models depict MLCAPE values in excess of 1500 J/kg along with 35-40 kts of bulk shear. This would result in a few strong to severe storms with damaging winds and hail as the main threats. In addition, isolated heavy rainfall will be possible this afternoon as PWAT values will remain around 1.5 inches and steering flow remains largely unidirectional. The rest of the forecast is in good shape with high temperatures topping out in the mid to upper 70s areawide. AC3 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 450 AM CDT Thu May 2 2019/ DISCUSSION...Surface analysis this morning places a quasi- stationary boundary from New England back along the I-44 in Missouri and then into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle. GOES-16 Satellite trends show a southward propagating Mesoscale Convective System over Texas and Northwest Louisiana. Regional WSR-88D radar trends indicate scattered showers and thunderstorms over Northeast Arkansas with weakening convection over Western Arkansas. As of 4 AM CDT, temperatures across the Mid-South are in the 60s at most locations. Strong to severe thunderstorm potential through tonight is the predominant concern in this morning's forecast issuance. The aforementioned quasi-stationary boundary over Missouri will begin to move very slowly south towards Southern Missouri over the next 24-36 hours. Several subtle mid-level shortwaves embedded within southwest flow aloft will move across the Lower Mississippi Valley through tonight. Short-term Convective Allowing Model solutions (CAMs) suggest any lingering convective activity this morning should diminish somewhat this morning with additional activity developing towards this afternoon evening as a remnant Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) moves across Arkansas. These features combined with 0-6 km Bulk Shear values between 25 to perhaps 35 kts, and Mixed Layer CAPE values approaching 2000 J/kg if adequate diurnal heating occurs suggests the potential for some strong to severe multicell clusters with damaging winds as the primary threat for any thunderstorm that reaches severe limits. Precipitable Water values at or above 1.5 inches will support the potential for localized heavy rainfall. A mid-level trough will move across the region Friday night into Saturday. This will help to push the surface boundary south into the Mid-South by Saturday. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected during this time with the potential for a few strong thunderstorms into Saturday. The mid-level trough will push east into Middle Tennessee late Saturday night with rain free expected to return for Sunday into next Monday. Long term models are still suffering from some run to run continuity issues with the return of showers and thunderstorms next Tuesday. Nonetheless, unsettled weather is anticipated to return for much of next week with the potential for additional showers and thunderstorms. CJC && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF cycle VFR conditions should continue into early this evening. Scattered thunderstorms will be found across northeast Arkansas this afternoon and across the remainder of the forecast area by this evening. Lower clouds will move into the forecast area this evening and will remain over the region into Friday morning. Winds will be mainly from the south at around 10 knots with some higher gusts. Winds will shift to the northwest starting as early as this evening and continuing through Friday morning. ARS && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$