970 FNUS71 KAKQ 021402 FWSAKQ Spot Forecast for James River RX...USFWS National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1002 AM EDT Thu May 2 2019 Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on May 02. If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather Service at 757-899-5734. .DISCUSSION... High pressure will remain centered off the southeast coast today, bringing a very warm and mainly dry day to the region. Winds will be mainly from the southwest at around 10 mph today. **Note that the James River RAWS site has been way too warm for temperature and dew point for awhile, generally by nearly ten degrees. The winds yesterday were lighter and this can lead to varying wind directions. .TODAY... Sky/weather.........Partly to mostly sunny (25-45 percent). Chance of pcpn......10 percent. Max temperature.....Around 89. Min humidity........42 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 8 to 10 mph. Mixing height.......6300 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southwest 12 to 17 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Increasing to excellent (86900 knot-ft) in the afternoon. LVORI...............3. ADI.................11 increasing to 72. Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (EDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........39 33 28 22 17 17 18 25 Weather cov..... Weather type.... Tstm cov........ Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Temp............76 79 82 84 86 87 88 87 RH..............69 62 56 51 48 43 42 43 20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW 20 FT wind spd..9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 20 FT wind gust.13 14 15 15 15 15 15 14 Mix hgt (kft)...2.3 3.3 4.1 5.0 5.9 6.0 6.2 6.3 Transp wind dir.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW Transp wind spd.17 17 17 17 16 16 16 15 LVORI...........1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ADI.............48 60 66 69 71 72 73 71 Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Vrate kt-ft/1K..36 51 63 73 82 85 87 85 Ventrate Cat....PR FR GD GD GD GD GD GD .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Chance of pcpn......10 percent. Min temperature.....Around 64. Max humidity........87 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 8 mph. Mixing height.......300 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southwest 6 to 13 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Good (51100 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing to poor (1400 knot-ft) late in the night. LVORI...............3. ADI.................51 decreasing to 3. Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM Sky (%).........31 37 42 43 44 42 40 39 37 33 30 27 Weather cov..... Weather type.... Tstm cov........ Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Temp............84 81 77 76 73 72 71 70 69 68 67 66 RH..............46 51 60 60 66 66 66 68 70 73 78 81 20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW S S S S S S S SW 20 FT wind spd..7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 20 FT wind gust.11 10 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 Mix hgt (kft)...4.6 2.8 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Transp wind dir.SW S S S S S S S S S S SW Transp wind spd.13 9 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 LVORI...........1 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 ADI.............51 13 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 Vrate kt-ft/1K..51 24 7 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 2 Ventrate Cat....FR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR .FRIDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Chance of pcpn......10 percent. Max temperature.....Around 88. Min humidity........40 percent. Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 10 mph. Mixing height.......5800 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southwest 8 to 17 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1800 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to excellent (86600 knot-ft) in the afternoon. LVORI...............4. ADI.................Increasing to 72 late in the afternoon. Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky (%).........30 36 30 26 26 29 Weather cov..... Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........ Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 Temp............65 68 77 83 86 88 RH..............87 81 64 53 45 40 20 ft wind......SW 6 SW 6 SW 6 SW 7 SW 8 S 9 20 ft wind gust.8 8 10 11 13 14 Mix hgt (ft)....300 300 2300 4100 5500 5700 Transport wind..SW 8 SW 12 SW 13 SW 14 SW 15 SW 17 LVORI...........6 4 1 1 1 1 ADI.............4 9 36 54 67 57 Haines index....4 4 5 5 5 5 Vrate kt-ft/1K..2 3 26 50 74 87 Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR FAIR GOOD GOOD $$ Forecaster...BROWN Requested by...Gregg Buckalew Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 1907959.0/AKQ .DELDT 05/02/19 .FormatterVersion 1.0.26 .EMAIL gregg_buckalew@fws.gov