846 FXUS63 KICT 011923 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 223 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 219 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019 Current forecast package seems to repeating itself with the current boundary hanging around the I44 corridor region from central OK through Missouri. As with previous forecasts, we are looking for a warm air advection pattern to cause lift north of the boundary into the far southern and southeastern sections of the state. Some low level cape remains present in the far southeastern section and those storms might get a little bit more pesky with hail up to one inch and winds to 60. Though the severe threat looks limited and short lived. With an already saturated ground and some river and lowland flooding, I expect to see more of the same and possibly some worsening conditions, especially closer to the state line. High pressure finally filters later on Thursday and kicks the boundary out of the region and gives the area a short reprieve to try and dry up. However, it may be short lived for the southern parts of the area as another boundary is being lifted north across Oklahoma and more showers and embedded storms may ensue. High pressure again filters into the region late Friday into Saturday. Return southerly flow begins late Saturday once again bringing in a very moist atmosphere. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 219 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019 A rather unsettled pattern will be setting up next week with a couple of low pressure systems and associated boundaries moving across the forecast area. This will put rain and thunder chances in the forecast for most days. Right now, the severe potential is very limited, however, that could change as the time draws nearer and the models get a better grasp on convective parameters. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 219 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019 Expecting post-frontal stratus to hang tough across Central and much of South-Central Kansas this afternoon through tonight. Modest diurnal heating this afternoon in the post-frontal airmass should allow remnant IFR ceilings to lift into the MVFR category for most areas. Scattered thunderstorms may develop along the cold front in Southeastern Kansas toward early this evening, given sufficient low-level moisture/instability can occur. If storms manage to develop, they will be capable of isolated severe wind gusts and large hail. Other clusters of showers/thunderstorms are progged to move eastward out of Colorado across much of Central/Southeast Kansas late tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 51 65 52 67 / 50 20 30 40 Hutchinson 48 64 48 67 / 50 10 30 30 Newton 48 63 50 65 / 50 20 30 30 ElDorado 51 64 52 65 / 60 20 30 40 Winfield-KWLD 53 66 53 67 / 60 30 30 50 Russell 42 63 45 67 / 50 10 40 20 Great Bend 43 62 45 67 / 60 0 30 20 Salina 47 65 48 66 / 50 10 30 30 McPherson 47 64 48 66 / 50 10 30 30 Coffeyville 57 68 56 68 / 60 30 40 50 Chanute 55 66 54 67 / 60 40 40 50 Iola 54 65 53 66 / 60 30 40 50 Parsons-KPPF 56 67 55 68 / 60 30 40 50 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for KSZ053-069>072- 093>096-098>100. && $$ SHORT TERM...CWH LONG TERM...CWH AVIATION...JMC