540 FXUS61 KCLE 011157 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Cleveland OH 757 AM EDT Wed May 1 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will move northeast through the Central Great Lakes today pulling a warm front north across the area. The front will settle back south tonight and stall just south of Lake Erie. Another wave of low pressure will move northeast along this boundary on Thursday, reaching upstate New York by Friday morning and pulling a cold front south behind it. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... At 7 AM the warm front noted by a wind shift to the south had reached as far north as a Lima to Marion line with locations as close as Dayton already in the upper 60s. Rain is focused well to the north, closer to the front at 850mb. Dry conditions will continue for most areas into this afternoon when showers and thunderstorms move into northwest Ohio. Previous discussion...Active weather will continue through the near term forecast period. Low pressure over Illinois this morning will track northeast across the Central Great lakes today, pulling a warm front north across the area. Winds will veer to the southwest with the passage of the warm front this morning and become windy as we start to mix into a strong wind field aloft. Gusts to 40 mph are possible in NW Ohio, topping out closer to 35 mph in eastern areas. Most areas will be dry into this afternoon as we are located in the warm sector with some sun expected, especially east. Temperatures will soar into the upper 70s to near 80 degrees for highs with dewpoints approaching 60. By this afternoon, we start to destabilize with a ribbon of ML Cape values of near 1000 J/kg developing ahead of the thicker cloud field. Expect to see scattered showers and thunderstorms develop this afternoon as the low passes north of the area. Activity may fire along a remnant boundary extending southwest from the low, moving east with time through the first part of this evening. This timing also corresponds with a 700mb jet streak moving from Northwest Ohio across Lake Erie. Storm motion will generally be southwest to northeast at 40-50 knots. Given the storm motion generally parallel to the mean flow, cloud cover may be a limiting factor for better instability but will need to keep an eye on any healthier thunderstorms or faster eastward motion that could bring strong winds down to the surface. Suspect the best chance of this will be in far northeast Ohio or Northwest Pennsylvania this evening. The Storm Predication Center has the whole area under a Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. Shower and thunderstorm activity will settle south tonight and taper off as deeper moisture axis is suppressed southward. The surface boundary is expected to end up south of Lake Erie where it will stall into Thursday morning. The first half of Thursday should be dry until the next wave of low pressure tracks out of the Plains along this boundary, reaching the area during the mid to late afternoon. Have slowed down pops during this time frame but should see coverage of showers and thunderstorms increase from west to east late in the period. We will once again be monitoring the degree of destabilization and strength of thunderstorms with the potential for a few stronger storms. This will be somewhat dependent on the evolution of upstream convection which will be monitored. Locations south of the boundary will be in the 70s again while lakeshore areas will be cooler in the 60s with northeasterly flow. Soil moisture remains high and any localized areas of heavier rainfall with thunderstorms could cause minor flooding in poor drainage areas and on some rivers. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Latest trend is for low pressure to track across northern OH/southern shore of Lake Erie Thursday night. Will have categorical PoPs with this wave and PWs over 1.25 inches pooling ahead of the frontal system. This is moving across at an unfavorable time of night so other than a residual severe threat from the afternoon, mildly organized convection will continue into the night. High pressure pushes south on Friday afternoon with a dry period. Unfortunately that dry period will be short lived for some as the next wave tracks across southern/southeastern OH Saturday. There is better agreement today with this track and the precipitation shield will likely reach into at least the southeast half of the area. Timing and position are still open to adjustment and confidence is still somewhat low on how Saturday/Saturday night will turn out. By this point will likely will have had several areas with at a minimum nuisance flooding concerns. Temperatures will be seasonable although a little cooler behind the front on Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Timing is off by about 12 hours for late weekend and early next week with the high to shift across the area and the next cold front to approach from the Upper Midwest. For now that requires chance PoPs broadly placed between Monday and Tuesday and continued seasonable temperatures. && .AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... The area is starting off north of a warm front that will lift north across the area this morning. IFR ceilings remain at TOL but will likely scatter out in the next hour or two. Winds north of the warm front are out of the east or northeast at 10 knots or less. Meanwhile a strong low level jet in moving over Northwest Ohio and will low level wind sheer in for terminals in Northwest and north central Ohio until the warm front passes and winds shift around to the south and increase. Southwest winds may gust as high as 30-35 knots from 15-22Z. VFR conditions expected during the day on Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms moving from west to east across the area during the 18-03Z window. Added a tempo for a couple hours for locations that should see thunderstorms before 00Z but refinements to timing will likely be needed. Lower ceilings will expand towards the end of the TAF cycle, generally after 06Z Thursday. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in periods of showers/thunderstorms through Friday morning. && .MARINE... Have extended the Small Craft Advisory on the west end for just a couple more hours for the funneling east flow. Winds/waves are showing signs of diminishing/subsiding although still choppy today. Previous discussion follows. East winds on the west end of the lake will remain up for the next few hours before beginning to diminish and veer to the southeast and south later today. Will keep the Small Craft Advisory as is. Low pressure will track just west of the lake today across lower Michigan and sink the cold front slowly south across the lake tonight with showers/thunderstorms. High pressure will push south across the lake briefly on Thursday. Another low will track very near the south shore of the lake early Friday. High pressure stays north of the lake while yet another low tracks across the region, this time across the Ohio Valley. The choppiest period of time on the lake continues to be today. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Lakeshore Flood Warning until noon EDT today for OHZ003-007- 009. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for LEZ142- 143. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KEC NEAR TERM...KEC SHORT TERM...Oudeman LONG TERM...99/Oudeman AVIATION...KEC MARINE...Oudeman