476 FXUS62 KCHS 011143 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 743 AM EDT Wed May 1 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure should prevail with generally dry and warm weather through early Thursday. A weak low pressure system and a cold front should then bring some unsettled weather Friday through the weekend. Drier high pressure will then likely prevail into the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 735 AM: Inland observations indicate patches of dense fog with clear conditions along the coast. Guidance indicates that the fog will dissipate by 9 AM. The patchy dense fog has been highlighted with a Special Weather Statement. As of 430 AM: Near-term guidance indicates that a 1027 mb sfc high will remain centered near Bermuda today through tonight. At H5, the center of a 590 dam ridge will remain over the western Atlantic. Through tonight, a broad low will gradually organize over the Bahamas. This pattern should support steady SE winds across the forecast area through the near term, with a few hours of gusty conditions possible this afternoon. Clouds through the period should remain rather thin, generally remaining partly cloudy. Decent insolation and mild thicknesses should result in afternoon temperatures to peak around 90 over inland GA to the low 80s across the beaches. Using a blend of MOS, low temperatures are forecast to range from the low 60s inland to the upper 60s along the coast. The low temperatures are forecast to reach within 3 degrees of expected crossover temperatures, supporting a mention of pre-dawn patchy to areas of fog Thursday morning. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Moderate to high confidence this period. Deeper moisture advecting onshore on the south side of Atlantic high pressure and on the north side of weak low pressure to the south Thursday could bring some showers and/or weak thunderstorms to mainly southeast GA. Rain chances should then increase for the rest of the area into Friday as the low pressure nears and upper forcing increases a bit as an upper shortwave trough approaches. Rain chances should then diminish Friday night and likely remain low even into Saturday with minimal forcing over the area ahead of an approaching cold front still well to the west. However, can't rule out an isolated strong storm Saturday given decent instability and downdraft CAPE. Temperatures will stay well above normal through the period. In fact, record high mins will be possible Friday and Saturday (see below for details). && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Moderate to high confidence this period. Deep layer troughing should linger through Sunday with some unsettled weather continuing until a cold frontal passage Sunday night. Conditions could be favorable for a few stronger storms Sunday as deep layer shear increases but forcing doesn't appear substantial enough to yield much severe weather. Drier high pressure should then build in starting Monday. Temperatures will likely stay above normal through the period. && .AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... View out of the window and KSAV Webcam indicate ground fog at both terminals early this morning. Satellite indicates that sunny conditions will remain across KCHS, I will not include any morning restrictions. KSAV should see MVFR fog through the first hour of the 12Z TAF. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the daylight hours. KSAV will see a slightly tighter pressure gradient this afternoon as mixing deepens to 3 kft, supporting afternoon gusts in the upper teens. SE winds are forecast to weaken to 4-9 kts after sunset and will remain through the rest of the TAF period. The low temperatures are forecast to reach within 3 degrees of expected crossover temperatures, supporting a mention of pre-dawn fog/stratus at both terminals, highlighted with TEMPOs between 10-12Z. Extended Aviation Outlook: Fog and/or low clouds will cause some restrictions each morning through the weekend. Also, showers and thunderstorms could cause restrictions Thursday at KSAV and then at KCHS/KSAV Friday through Sunday. && .MARINE... Near-term guidance indicates that a 1027 mb sfc high will remain centered near Bermuda today through tonight. Through tonight, a broad low will gradually organize over the Bahamas. This pattern should support steady SE winds across the marine zones through the near term. Seas are forecast to range between 2-3 ft today, building to 3-5 ft tonight. Thursday through Monday: Atlantic high pressure will prevail through Thursday before a weak low pressure system possibly moves north over or near the area Thursday night and Friday. A cold front will then likely approach from the west late in the weekend and push through Sunday night followed by high pressure once again. Increasing swells on the south side of high pressure and the north side of low pressure could help push significant wave heights to marginal Small Craft Advisory levels (6 ft) Thursday into early Friday but otherwise we think the risk of SCAs is very low. Rip Currents...Increasing southeast swell, persistent onshore winds and astronomical influences will likely result in an enhanced risk through at least Friday. && .CLIMATE... Record high min temps for May 4: KCHS: 70/1990 KCXM: 73/last set in 1990 KSAV: 70/last set in 1984 Record high min temps for May 5: KCHS: 70/last set in 1996 KCXM: 73/last set in 2012 KSAV: 70/last set in 2012 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...NED SHORT TERM...RJB LONG TERM...RJB AVIATION...NED/RJB MARINE...NED/RJB CLIMATE...