193 FXUS63 KIND 011041 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 641 AM EDT Wed May 1 2019 .UPDATE... The AVIATION Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 316 AM EDT Wed May 1 2019 The shower and thunderstorm chances will continue through the week as a frontal boundary continues to oscillate over the region. The only difference is that the severe threat has increased a bit to SLIGHT RISK across all of central Indiana except the northwest third for Thursday and Thursday night. It won't be until Saturday when the thunderstorm chances end and only rain lingers. By Saturday night though, the frontal boundary will finally move southeast of the region, and weak upper ridging will result in dry conditions through the remainder of the weekend. Further out, yet another frontal system will quickly move in early next week with additional shower and thunderstorm chances. && .NEAR TERM /Today/... Issued at 316 AM EDT Wed May 1 2019 The main focus of the near term period will continue to be shower and thunderstorm chances with a MARGINAL RISK for severe weather. So far, central Indiana has been escaping most of the shower and thunderstorm activity that is currently widespread from Oklahoma to northwest Indiana. Current setup has a surface low situated over southern IA/northern MO with a warm front out ahead of it into the Ohio Valley and a trailing cold front stretching into Oklahoma. Current radar activity seems to be matching up well with a 50-60 kt low level jet, so this seems to be the main source of forcing. As this jet moves into central Indiana after Wed 12Z, expect to see a ramp up in convective activity across the forecast area. And, as the day wears on, strong southwest flow will contribute to heating and further destabilization that will be conducive to thunderstorm development into the evening hours. Trended above guidance due to the breezy southwest winds, which should put high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s and low 80s (SE). Sustained wind speeds will range between 10 to 25 mph. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/... Issued at 316 AM EDT Wed May 1 2019 Showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible throughout the short term period. Tonight, showers and thunderstorms will linger, but the severe threat should taper off early. It won't be until Thursday when part of the frontal boundary ejects forward that the severe threat will return. So, latest Day 2 convective outlook puts the southeast two-thirds of central Indiana under a slight risk where instability will be best (mainly Thursday afternoon and evening). As this persistent frontal boundary finally moves southeastward on Thursday night/Friday, the thunderstorm threat will start tapering off from northwest to southeast across the forecast area. Rain will linger into Saturday, however. && .LONG TERM (Saturday through Tuesday)... Issued at 403 AM EDT Wed May 1 2019 Saturday morning a frontal system along the Ohio River will slowly move east as a weak upper wave moves through the area. Model progs keep even elevated instability south of the forecast area, so kept a chance for showers but no thunderstorms in the forecast for Saturday. Chances will be highest in the southeastern counties, and will decrease across the entire area during the day. By Saturday night, dry weather should be in place across the area and this should last through Monday morning. By Monday afternoon and afterwards, will see some low PoPs come back into the forecast as a frontal system tries to make its way toward the area but high pressure makes its progression difficult. By Tuesday though an upper wave moving through could combine with a surface low pressure system to bring chances for showers and thunderstorms to the area. Should note that at this point the GFS and ECM show some meaningful differences in their surface patterns so left the consensus initialization chance PoPs alone. For temperatures, the pattern is relatively flat, so looking at near to slightly above normal temperatures through the period. && .AVIATION /Discussion for 011200z TAF issuance/... Issued at 630 AM EDT Wed May 1 2019 Scattered rain showers will be around the TAF sites this morning, with best chances at KLAF. Could see MVFR ceilings move in from the northwest during the morning but probably won't make it to KBMG. Expect all ceilings to rise this afternoon, but should see some thunderstorm chances arrive then and hang out into the evening. Another surface wave will move along the relatively stalled front near the area overnight, lowering both ceilings and visibilities. Right now mostly indicating MVFR conditions overnight, but would not be surprised to see more IFR develop than what models are currently indicating. For this morning and today, wind gusts have already developed, and expected these to continue throughout the daylight hours. Gusts of 19 to 34 kts out of generally the south southwest can be expected. These should decrease to almost no gusts whatsoever later tonight. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TDUD NEAR TERM...TDUD SHORT TERM...TDUD LONG TERM...CP AVIATION...CP