950 FXUS61 KCAR 301652 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1252 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Weak low pressure will move well south of the region today. Canadian high pressure builds tonight into Wednesday then move east Wednesday evening. Another low will track well south of the region late Wednesday night and Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1240 PM Update: The back edge of cld cvr conts to slide swrd thru our fcst area, now near a KGNR-KMLT-Danforth ln, and pressing toward the coast. Cld cvr was adjusted slightly again this update by tm shifting clrg forward in tm by an hr or two from the prev fcst. Otherwise, fcst hrly temps/dwpts into the late aftn hrs were updated based on trends seen from latest sfc obs. We raised hi temps by about a deg N and lowered them by a deg ovr Downeast/E Cntrl areas due to differential sunshine across the FA thru this tm frame. Orgnl Disc: Surface low pressure currently in western Pennsylvania will shoot due eastward south of Cape Cod today in a fast zonal flow. With very dry air in place, chances of any precip in the forecast area have continued to decrease. There will be a lot of mid clouds across most of the area today until the rather flat upper level trough crosses by early this afternoon. As the low departs eastward this afternoon, a 1038mb high over James Bay will build with some cold air advection and even drier air. The airmass in place today isn't as cold aloft as yesterday. This will allow most of the area to reach higher temperatures this afternoon, but it will still be below normal with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Winds will not be as gusty as yesterday as winds aloft have lessened and mixing will not be as robust. Nonetheless, gusts to 25 mph can be expected in northern zones in the afternoon when the mid cloud departs. Dew point forecasts continue to be a challenge in the dry air mass. Expect single digit dew points in northern zones this afternoon. Went with teens towards Bangor due to more cloud cover and less mixing, but these may need to be adjusted down towards the very dry MET guidance. In terms of tonight's lows, there's good H925 cold advection with the Saint John Valley dropping towards -9C by late night, but strong radiational cooling will be hindered by fairly steady northwest winds keeping low levels mixed. Looking for lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will cross the region Wednesday, with a developing warm front across southern New England. After a mostly sunny morning, clouds will increase Wednesday afternoon with a slight chance of rain across southwest areas late. High pressure remains centered north of the region Wednesday night, while low pressure tracks along the warm front across southern New England. Expect the better rain chances across southern portions of the forecast area Wednesday night, with decreasing chances northward across the remainder of the region with partly cloudy skies across northern areas. High pressure builds south Thursday suppressing the warm front and low. Could still have a slight chance/chance of rain across southern areas early Thursday, with decreasing clouds during the afternoon. Partly/mostly sunny skies are expected across northern areas Thursday. High pressure begins to exit across the Maritimes Thursday night while low pressure approaches western New England. Clouds will increase Thursday night, with rain showers possibly starting to approach western areas late. Temperatures will be at below normal levels Wednesday/Thursday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The low will cross the region Friday through Friday night, with rain Friday tapering to showers Friday night. The exiting low will draw a cold front across the region early Saturday, with still a chance of showers in advance of the cold front. High pressure then builds across the region later Saturday. High pressure is expected Sunday, while another low tracks south of the region. Uncertainty still exists regarding whether the northern edge of the precipitation shield with the low is able to reach Downeast areas. A cold front will cross the region Monday with a chance of showers. Temperatures will be at below normal levels Friday. Near normal, to slightly above normal, level temperatures are expected Saturday through Monday. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected with excellent vis and no cigs under 5000 feet. Gusty northwest winds will develop by this afternoon. Gusts may reach over 25 mph. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected Wednesday. Expect VFR conditions north, VFR/MVFR Downeast, Wednesday night and Thursday. VFR/MVFR conditions are expected across the region Thursday night, with MVFR/IFR conditions Friday through early Saturday. VFR/MVFR conditions are expected later Saturday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: No significant weather is expected. Northwest winds will pick up later today as a low pressure system departs to the southeast. Winds will again pick up and become gusty late tonight, but fall short of advisory criteria. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas will be below small craft advisory levels Wednesday through Thursday night. Visibilities will be reduced in rain Wednesday night through early Thursday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Low relative humidity, dry conditions, and gusty northwest winds will progressively dry out fine fuels this week, increasing the risk of fire starts. The next credible threat of a wetting rain across the entire area will not occur until later Friday. && .HYDROLOGY... The Fish River has fallen below food stage and is expected to remain below from this point onward. Mattawamkeag remains in flood at minor flood stage. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norcross Aviation...VJN/Norcross Marine...VJN/Norcross Fire Weather...VJN Hydrology...VJN