867 FXUS62 KMHX 300850 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 450 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will ridge west from the Atlantic through late week. A cold front will approach from the west on Saturday then move offshore by Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 440 AM Tue...Updated to issue Dense Fog Advisory for the areas from Pamlico River SW just inland from the coast. Several spots in this area have been reporting 1/4 mile vsbys now for more than an hour. Expecting the fog to lift and diminish fairly quickly after sunrise. Prev disc...Ridge of high pres is shifting off the cst this morn. Winds currently light over the area and this allowing areas of stratus and fog to develop. This will cont thru daybreak then shld lift rather quickly thru mid morn with msunny skies expected rest of the day. SSW winds will avg 5 to 15 mph this aftn higher near the coast where enhanced by sea brz. Increasing thicknesses support highs mid/upr 80s inland with upr 70s/lower 80s cst. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... As of 230 AM Tue...High pres will cont to extend over the region off the Atlantic with SSW winds leading to mild lows in the 60s under mclr skies. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 2 am Tue...A late April/early May heat wave will build this week with well above normal temps expected. Dry weather can be expected through Friday, before the next front brings a chance of showers/storms this weekend. Wednesday through Friday...An east-west oriented surface ridge coupled with a somewhat quasi-stationary boundary well to our north will keep the area dry and very warm through much of the upcoming week. Mid Atlantic ridge strengthens through the week and suppresses any thunderstorm chances, while at the same time building hgts to well above climo. MOS guide and low lvl thickness values around 1400m in good agreement with highs in the 85-90 degree range each day for the interior zones, with low 80s along the coast. Lows will be correspondingly warm as well with swrly flow each night keeping temps in the 60s for all areas. Friday night through Monday...Unsettled pattern sets up for next weekend. The cold front approaches from the west Friday night. Models show upper level trof is rather broad, so front will be slow to push through. , and meanders around through the weekend per continued run to run consistency from the ECMWF and UKMET. GFS and CMC more progressive with pushing front offshore on Sunday. Either way, does not look like a big severe weather maker as shear is marginal, and in fact more like a summer time setup with afternoon storms each day, especially inland zones. Highs still above normal though not as hot as during the week, with mid 80s inland and low 80s coast due to increase cloud cover and precip chances. Lows will range in the mid 60s Sat morning and lower 60s Sunday morning. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Short Term /through Tonight/... As of 1235 AM Tue...Another difficult fcst trying to figure out cvrg of stratus/patchy fog thru early morn. Once again guidance varies with NAM showing lots of IFR stratus with GFS hardly any. Based on satl trends last cpl hrs with areas of st beginning to develop will lean closer to NAM with at least a few pds of IFR/MVFR cigs/vsbys most sites thru 12 to 14Z. From mid morning on fcst is easier with low clouds diminishing and VFR expected with mclr skies. Late tonight there again could be some areas of stratus or patchy fog but will not add to fcst yet given uncertainty. Long Term /Wed through Sat/... As of 2 am Tue...VFR through Friday night. However, cannot rule out patchy fog or stratus each late night/early morning. Sub- VFR conditions forecast for Saturday, with scattered convection ahead of an approaching cold front. && .MARINE... Short Term /Today and tonight/... As of 440 AM Tue...Updated to issue Dense Fog Advisory for the inland rivers thru 12z where adjacent obs show vsbys less than 1 mile. Prev disc....Good boating this period as high pres moves off the cst. Expect winds to become SSW 5 to 15 kt today and cont in that range tonight. Highest wind speeds will be during aftn and evening enhanced by the sea brz. Still have some 4 ft seas outer nrn wtrs but these shld cont to subside with seas avg 2 to 3 feet thru pd. Long Term /Wed through Sat/... As of 2 am Tue...Good boating conditions through the period, as Bermuda high pres ridges in from the western Atlantic, with southwest winds generally 5-15 kt, and seas 2-4 ft. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NCZ080- 090>092-094-193-194-198. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ136-137. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RF SHORT TERM...RF LONG TERM...HSA AVIATION...RF/HSA MARINE...RF/HSA