268 FXUS61 KRNK 300828 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 428 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure was over western Pennsylvania with a warm front extending into North Carolina and a cold front trailing into the Mid Mississippi Valley. The warm front will move north today and the cold front will drop into eastern Virginia tonight. Another cold front will reach the eastern United States for Friday and Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 305 AM EDT Tuesday... Building upper ridge and increasing 850mb temperatures today will result in above normal temperatures despite occasional mid and high clouds. Area of deep moisture moves around the north side of the upper ridge today and tonight. MSAS pressure, surface dew point and wind analysis showed a boundary across North Carolina trailing back to a low over western Pennsylvania. This front will move north reaching northern Virginia around 8AM/12Z. Another wave tracking east along the front will push the boundary back into central and eastern Virginia starting late this afternoon. Uncertain how far west the front will progress but based on the Lifted Index forecast, it may be near Lynchburg by Wednesday morning. GFS and NAM were suggesting a chance of showers from Bath to Buckingham County this afternoon and tonight just ahead of the front. Will also keep a slight chance of showers along the southern Blue Ridge were there will be enough instability to support isolated thunderstorms, even with a lack of organized forcing. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 225 AM EDT Tuesday... The upper level ridge will slowly move off the Southeast Coast Wednesday and likely reside there into Thursday. Increasing heights aloft and southwest flow will aide in temperatures warming again into the 80s Wednesday. We could see a repeat of temperatures Thursday, especially east of the Blue Ridge where a capped environment will keep the rain chances very low. With the ridge off the Southeast Coast, storm systems will track from the central Plains to southeastern Canada. Therefore, no organized storms are anticipate. However, with each warm day and continued southwesterly flow, moisture transport will increase into the region, raising the chances for afternoon and evening mountain showers and thunderstorms. Isolated thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and scattered storms on Thursday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 355 PM EDT Monday... Latest cycle of models and ensemble members are trending toward the ridge off the coast dominating, and thus the approaching front struggling to move all the way through the mountains, so while forcing will remain weak, moisture and some weak convergence appears more likely to last across the forecast area through at least Saturday, with high chance to likely probabilities of showers and storms, afternoon to early evening, through Saturday. Model differences now show up more in the Sunday and Monday time frame with some solutions showing a strong wave kicking the frontal boundary and better moisture east of the region on Sunday, and others not until Monday. Left a lower chance still for some scattered showers or storms for Sunday for much of the CWA as the weak boundary may actually be just east of the Blue Ridge during peak heating. Plenty of cloud cover likely to linger though, and so instability should not be especially high and it may really limit thunder chances. Highs perhaps dropping back a few degrees from low to mid 80s back into upper 70s and lower 80s over the weekend. Looks like most model solutions do show the frontal boundary or what is left of it shifting east on Monday, but another wave could be approaching from the west at some point, so may not completely be a dry day even then. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 140 AM EDT Tuesday... Wedge of high pressure was retreating out of the Mid Atlantic region early this morning. The western edge of an area of VFR to MVFR clouds was near a KFVX to KDAN line. KDAN may be oscillating between scattered and broken MVFR ceilings through 12Z. Fog appears possible in LYH/DAN as lower levels moisten up some, especially where clouds clear out early this morning. Light MVFR fog is possible at LWB and BCB. Deep mixing returns all sites to VFR by afternoon. Isolated showers or thunderstorms are possible across northern and central Virginia in the afternoon. Also, there is a small chance for a storm along the southern Blue Ridge. Confidence is average for the vsbys/cigs and above average for winds. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... Mainly VFR weather is expected to prevail through Thursday as winds continue to slowly veer southwest as a warm and dry high pressure ridge aloft sets up over the southeastern states. Approach of next cold front and a series of low pressure systems that will ride along it will likely result in an increasing threat for widely scattered to scattered showers and thunderstorms, along with associated localized/occasional MVFR flight restrictions, primarily Friday into the weekend. && .CLIMATE... As of 425 AM EDT Tuesday... Temps will run 15 to 20 degrees above normal today. Some record highs may be approached, possibly broken. STATION RECORD HIGH/DATE FORECAST HIGH ROANOKE 89/1942 86 LYNCHBURG 91/1942 85 DANVILLE 92/1974 86 BLACKSBURG 85/1994 82 BLUEFIELD 85/1942 80 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...SK AVIATION...AMS/KK CLIMATE...AMS/WP