396 FXUS61 KCLE 300823 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Cleveland OH 423 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will settle south to near the Ohio River today and remain stationary until this evening. The boundary will slowly lift north as a warm front tonight and Wednesday as low pressure tracks out of the Plains across the central Great Lakes. A second wave of low pressure will track from the Plains across the eastern Great Lakes Thursday night, pulling a cold front south behind it. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A cold front will continue to settle south to near the Ohio River today as low pressure over Pennsylvania continues to pull away to the east. Considerable cloud cover will be in place and will combine with north to northeast flow to keep temperatures on the cool side of normal today. Highs will range from the upper 50s in the southeast to upper 40s near the lakeshore. A drier northeast wind will attempt to erode low clouds in eastern areas later this afternoon but mid and high cloud streaming around the ridge will be there to replace them. There will be a low chance of showers in the forecast given the mid-level moisture advection but expecting thunderstorms to hold off until tonight as the warm front begins to lift back north. A non-diurnal cycle with rising temperatures can be expected overnight. A wave of low pressure developing over the southern Plains will move northeast tonight, reaching southern Lake Michigan by Wednesday morning. Easterly winds will be on the increase again on Lake Erie this evening ahead of the low, causing water levels to rise on the western basin and briefly approach flooding levels. Showers and thunderstorms will develop upstream as a low level jet ramps up and focuses ascent across Michigan. Will have chance pops across the area lifting north with time, with best chances for a few thunderstorms spilling around the ridge across northern portions of the area. The warm front will continue north on Wednesday with breezy southwest winds pushing highs into the mid 70s to near 80 degrees. Destabilization will be aided by breaks in the clouds during the morning and dewpoints increasing to near 60. As the upper level waves passes north of the area, a ribbon of deeper moisture will set up across northwest Ohio, settling south of the lake late in the day. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop with the best coverage likely near the northeast lakeshore. A fairly strong wind field aloft may support a few stronger thunderstorms that we may need to keep an eye on. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... An active week will continue with the eastern ridge breaking down and leaving behind broad scale zonal flow across the country. This will bring across multiple systems. One system to move across the Great Lakes Wedneday/Wednesday night will slide a cold front south to northern OH/PA Wednesday night. This front will likely linger through Thursday and the next wave buckling the front arrives on Friday. This will keep daily chances for showers/thunderstorms. Thursday has a marginal chance of severe thunderstorms. Temperatures will be running above normal Thursday inland, with the cold front near the lakeshore. Friday temperatures will be closer to normal. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The weekend will be a bit quieter. High pressure shifts east across the Great Lakes Friday night. There is a shortwave/weak trough that crosses the TN/OH Valleys Saturday/Saturday night but for now the surface reflection is tracking southeast of the local area and have largely kept the forecast dry. The exception is a low chance PoP across the southernmost counties Saturday. By Monday the next cold front, this from the upper Midwest, arrives with a renewed chance of showers. Temperatures will be seasonable. && .AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/... IFR conditions continue to expand at 06Z as a cold front is being pulled south behind a departing low pressure system. Many sites will see MVFR visibilites overnight with a chance of dropping to IFR. Improvement will be gradual through the day on Tuesday with eastern terminals improving faster as drier air and downsloping sneak in from the east. The front will slowly start to lift back north as a warm front after 00Z Wed. Chances of showers may sneak into NW Ohio as early as 18Z with the coverage of rain increasing after 22Z in NW Ohio and just a chance of showers extending east through the overnight. A thunderstorm could be possible but coverage is too low to include at this time. Variable wind conditions at the start of the period will veer to northeast by morning. Winds will tend to be strongest towards TOL late in the TAF period with flow off Lake Erie and speeds increasing to 15-20 knots. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR in periods of showers/thunderstorms through Thursday night. && .MARINE... High pressure centered north of the lake will keep the light northerly flow on the lake today. Low pressure will move across the lower lakes mid week and take a warm front north of the lake on Wednesday and, with the passage of the low, take a cold front south across the lake early Thursday. Another low moving along the front will make it buckle pushing it north of the lake Thursday night with a final sweeping cold front Friday. This evening there may be a brief period of marginal small craft advisory conditions near the Islands with a stronger east wind, but overall through the remainder of the week, winds/waves look to be under small craft criteria. There will be a choppy period from the east winds tonight through Wednesday when they veer southeast in the morning (downslope off Erie PA) and southwest during the day. Water levels will be high this evening, but the window looks to be narrow. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KEC NEAR TERM...KEC SHORT TERM...Oudeman LONG TERM...Oudeman AVIATION...KEC MARINE...Oudeman