383 FXUS63 KIND 291732 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 132 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2019 .UPDATE... The AVIATION Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 343 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2019 An active weather pattern will be in place over central Indiana this week as a frontal system stalls over the area. This will keep chances for rain showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through Thursday night. Chances for rain for the weekend are much lower than the work week as the front finally moves away and broad upper ridging builds in. Temperatures will run above normal for most of the area through the period, but could see some lower temperatures across the northern counties at times depending where the front sets up. && .NEAR TERM /This afternoon/... Issued at 1004 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2019 Surface analysis this morning shows Low pressure was in place over Missouri...with a warm front stretching east across Illinois and Indiana. Radar shows a couple of areas of showers over Illinois poised to push across Indiana in the next several hours. GFS 300K Isentropic surface shows good lift across the area late this morning and early this afternoon...with favorable specific humidities over 7 g/kg. Time heights also show good lower level moisture and lift through the day. meanwhile aloft the models suggest a moderate short wave pushing across Indiana. Thus with plenty of forcing in play...have trended pops higher than the previous forecast. Furthermore given the expected cloud and precipitation have trended temps a little cooler than the previous forecast. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday night/... Issued at 343 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2019 A frontal system stalling across the area will keep chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through the short term. The best upper forcing appears to be across northern parts of the forecast area most of the time, and thus highest PoPs are generally confined there. It is likely that the gradient of rain/no rain area will fall somewhere in the forecast area, but pinpointing that is low confidence so generally kept at least a slight chance for rain going nearly the entire short term for the whole area. With the influx of warm and moist air should see enough instability to merit at least a slight chance for thunderstorms most of the time as well. A marginal risk for Wednesday/Wednesday night encompasses the entire forecast area, likely due to the stalled front, a good upper wave moving across it during the day, and a low level jet enhancing shear. Currently appears the highest rainfall amounts will be possible across the northern counties, but even there looks like less than previously thought with the axis of highest amounts still well west of the forecast area. && .LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday Night/... Issued at 407 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2019 Confidence remains high in shower and thunderstorm chances through Thursday night as an area of low pressure continues its track across the Ohio Valley. Latest model runs have slowed the surface low and a trailing upper low though, and rain is now expected to linger into Friday. Any thunderstorm threat should subside by Thursday night, however. At that point, dry conditions will prevail for Friday night and through Saturday for the northern portions of central Indiana. The only caveat will be low chances for some rain showers across the southern counties on Saturday as models now trend toward a weak upper trough over the Tennessee Valley. The low rain chances will move through quickly though, and dry conditions will return for all of central Indiana for Saturday night and Sunday. The next chance for rain will be on Sunday night with the next front. Meanwhile, temperatures through the period will fluctuate a bit between below and above normal. && .AVIATION /Discussion For the 291800Z TAFS/... Issued at 132 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2019 Short wave producing light rain showers across Central Indiana is quickly sweeping across the TAF Sites as Low pressure arrives in western Central Indiana. Best forcing and lift appears to be ahead of this system...thus precipitation should end across the TAF sites within the first hour of issuance. VFR Cigs within the warm sector of the passing low will be expected this afternoon...expect at LAF...where begin on the cool north side of the track...MVFR to IFR Cigs will be possible this afternoon and evening. This evening as a weak cold front stalls across Central Indiana...IFR to MVFR conditions are expected to settle across central Indiana tonight. Time heights show saturated lower levels through the night. Some SHRA will be possible overnight as the front lingers and the models suggest a poorly defined short wave passing aloft. Have used another period of VCSH...but confidence is low. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CP NEAR TERM...Puma SHORT TERM...CP LONG TERM....TDUD AVIATION...JP