727 FXUS64 KLUB 291457 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 957 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2019 .UPDATE... Have issued a pair of forecast updates this morning primarily to add isolated shower mention to the Rolling Plains this morning and to adjust cloud cover across the northwest where post-frontal stratus has been much more aggressive with its southward movement than previously expected. Day 1 severe outlook has shifted today's slight risk southward with only the southern Rolling Plains in it at this point. This looks good with the front expected to push south of the forecast area by mid afternoon but with the potential for storms that develop along it across the Permian Basin to move northward toward the Rolling Plains. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 624 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2019/ DISCUSSION... Cold front is making its way through the southern Panhandle and will reach CDS/PVW by about 14Z. Low stratus looks as if it could bring MVFR ceilings to these sites for a while this morning though some of the data suggests that things will remain scattered. Thunderstorm chances increase areawide this afternoon with a transition to lower ceilings during the evening and overnight hours with widespread precipitation. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 451 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2019/ DISCUSSION... Early this morning low level WV depicts a surface cold front just entering the TX Panhandle. As the morning progresses, this cold front will slide through the area stalling near our southern CWA border as the dryline settles across our SW CWA border. Simultaneously, a strong fetch off the Gulf will continue to advect rich moisture over the area. This afternoon/evening the front will serve as focus for storm initiation. Storms will likely initially develop south of the FA and quickly move NE into the FA. Areas southeast of a Brownfield to Childress line will have the best potential for stronger storms. MUCAPE around 1000J/kg with bulk shear around 50kts will allow for some severe activity. The main hazards with these storms will be large hail and locally heavy rainfall. With regard to the tornado risk, given 0-1km helicity of 100 to 200m^2/s^2 (and increasing during the early evening) near the surface boundary, a few tornadoes will be possible. Hodographs support right movers with a few splitting storms. Late this evening, an upper level shortwave trough will approach and move across the FA providing lift and energy for area wide thunderstorms. The main hazard with these storms will be strong outflow winds Precipitation will come to an end from west to east Tuesday afternoon as the dryline is forced eastward. Wednesday afternoon through Thursday, storms will be possible along the dryline with the Rolling Plains favored for activity. On Thursday, another cold front will push through the CWA. Precip with this front appears to remain south and east of the area. Friday and beyond become more fuzzy as models diverge but indications suggest that thunderstorm chances will continue into the weekend. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 07