115 
FXUS64 KTSA 290814
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
314 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Strong/severe convective complex continues to push into SE Kansas
early this morning. Storms may clip far northeast Oklahoma, however
activity should be slowly weakening as storms moves into a more 
stable air-mass.

Cold front will move into northeast Oklahoma this afternoon, pushing
to just north of I-44 before stalling. Still some uncertainty 
regarding overall extent of surface based storms this afternoon/evening
with a weak cap in place. If storms do develop they would pose at
least a limited severe threat with large hail and damaging winds,
primarily near Tulsa and to the southwest where the higher 
instability will reside.

Thunderstorms are expected to become more widespread late tonight
along/north of frontal boundary as upper wave moves into the 
southern Rockies. A flash flood watch will be issued for far 
northeast Oklahoma valid after midnight tonight and continue 
through at least Tuesday night. Watch area will more than likely 
need to be expanded to include much of eastern Oklahoma and 
northwest Arkansas given the heavy rain potential expected through
at least Wednesday with widespread 3 to 5 inch rainfall totals 
expected.

In addition to the flooding threat, significant severe weather 
appears likely Tuesday into Tuesday night with the potential for 
very large hail/damaging winds and a few tornadoes. The severe
weather/heavy rainfall threat will likely persist into Wednesday
as the moist/unstable air-mass remain in place. Models have also 
been hinting at the potential for training storms across portions
of southeast Oklahoma late Tuesday night into the day Wednesday 
in nose of low level jet axis. 

Models continue to trend slower with southward progression of cold
front Thursday into Friday and will therefore need to hold on to
at least low chance pops through the weekend. Any additional
rainfall on saturated grounds could further aggravate flooding 
concerns.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  66  80  63 /  30  70  80  70 
FSM   78  66  79  68 /  20  20  60  80 
MLC   78  66  79  69 /  20  40  70  70 
BVO   71  60  76  62 /  40  80  80  70 
FYV   75  60  76  65 /  20  30  60  80 
BYV   77  61  78  64 /  30  30  50  80 
MKO   77  65  79  67 /  20  50  80  80 
MIO   73  63  77  63 /  40  70  80  80 
F10   76  65  78  66 /  20  50  80  70 
HHW   80  67  80  68 /  10  20  70  80 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning 
     for OKZ054>058.

AR...None.
&&

$$


LONG TERM....12