155 FXUS62 KFFC 281145 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 745 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 401 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2019/ SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/... Currently, a surface low pressure is traversing across the Ohio River Valley with a weak surface cold front extending to the I-30 corridor of Southern Arkansas and Northeastern Texas. Georgia resides in the warm sector with southwestern low-level flow bringing moist air from the Gulf which will mix down to the surface and increase dew points this afternoon everywhere except for far southeastern portions of the forecast area. Aloft, broad zonal flow will limit synoptic forcing as the frontal boundary sags into the area later today. There's been a drying trend as of late that looks to limit any storm potential today, there's also a stout capping inversion between H850-700 in most model soundings this afternoon that looks to stifle any attempted convection today. A trend that high-res models have picked up on. However, there is some potential that the cap may not be as strong as anticipated and some isolated storms could still form this afternoon. it's believed to be an outside chance given the decreasing trends but enough to warrant at least a slight chance for storms for North GA this afternoon. For tomorrow, the deteriorated frontal system will lift northward as temps continue to climb into the mid-80s for most of the forecast area, and even into the 90s for portions of east central GA. Subtle upper-level ridging to the west will enhance subsidence in the region will will continue to suppress any storm potential. Thiem LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/... The upper ridge will build across the forecast area through the middle of the week. By late Wednesday an upper low will move from the mid MS Valley into the Great Lakes. This will pull a front southward toward GA. Models have slowed down on the advance of the front and the extent of the return moisture into GA. So...for Wednesday afternoon through Thursday...pops have been pulled back northward into the forecast area. Friday and Friday night still look like the better rain chances as the upper trough moves over GA and the front advances through the forecast area. Have left thunder in for all periods. The ECMWF seems to indicate that there may be some lingering moisture and possible showers for north and central GA on Saturday...where the GFS is sharper and more progressive with the upper trough. For now...have continued with the GFS solution and shown the north and west drying out on Saturday with only some slight chance of showers in the east central. 41 && .AVIATION... 12Z Update... VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Very light and isolated SHRA is transitioning across the northern sites, and is expected to dissipate in the next couple of hours. Winds will be between 5-10 kts out of the west will swing out of the SE around 06Z tonight. An outside chance for afternoon SHRA/TSRA does exist but chances are too small to warrant inclusion in the TAFs at this time. //ATL Confidence...12Z Update... Med-High confidence in TSRA likelihood High confidence in all other elements Thiem && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 82 58 86 60 / 20 10 5 0 Atlanta 80 60 85 63 / 20 10 5 0 Blairsville 75 51 79 56 / 20 10 5 0 Cartersville 80 57 85 60 / 20 10 5 0 Columbus 84 58 88 64 / 10 10 5 0 Gainesville 79 58 82 61 / 20 10 5 5 Macon 85 56 89 61 / 10 10 5 0 Rome 79 55 86 59 / 20 10 5 0 Peachtree City 82 57 86 60 / 20 10 5 0 Vidalia 86 59 90 63 / 10 10 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Thiem LONG TERM....41 AVIATION...Thiem