829 FXUS61 KRLX 281053 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 653 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front crosses this morning. High pressure follows on Monday. Warmer and more humid midweek. Cold front Thursday into Friday, with high pressure for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 645 AM Sunday... Freshened up hourly grids this morning to reflect current trends. This resulted in an hour delay in frontal passage from earlier forecast. Prefrontal band of showers and rumbles of thunder are exiting the mountains currently. I suspect a broken line of light showers will develop later this morning with the actual front, which is currently void of precip. I nudged temps down a tick or two this afternoon per recent trends in hi res guidance. As 150 AM Sunday... Warm sector airmass will give way to cold front crossing this morning from the west with surface low pressure tracking across northern counties. A broken line of showers and possibly a storm or two will mark the frontal passage, particularly across southeast OH and closer to the low. The front should clear the mountains midday. Subsequent post frontal stratus will overspread the area amid weak CAA. Stratus and stratcu will linger for most of the day across northeast KY, central WV and the WV mountains along and just ahead of the H85 front as it follows the surface boundary. Dry air will finally overwhelm the boundary layer with clearing occurring where the stratus held on the longest. High pressure passes well to the north tonight helping to keep a weak boundary layer stir, though some river valley fog is still envisioned. Temperatures today were derived from a blend of NBM and MET guidance. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM Sunday... A warm front will lift through on Monday as a surface low slides across the southern Great Lakes. Have shower and thunderstorm chances mainly limited to the northern half of the forecast area Monday into Monday night. This warm front the stalls out across northern OH/PA through the remainder of the short term period. A consensus blend kept some low end POPs across the very north, and with some uncertainty on exactly where the front stalls opted to leave this for now...but generally looking dry Tuesday. Moisture increasing some into Wednesday so POPs increase some, but still remain confined to the northern half of the forecast area. Being in the warm sector Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures will be warmer than normal for late April and early May. Stuck close to the consensus blend with highs in the 80s, but if we do remain dry across the south for the first half of the work week, would not be surprised to see some highs in the low 90s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 230 AM Sunday... The stalled front from the short term period will sink south as a cold front Wednesday night and Thursday with increasing chances of showers and storms. A secondary wave of low pressure moves along the front late Thursday into Friday, so have likely POPs transitioning across the forecast area for this time frame. Another wave lifts up the front on Friday, so have POPs lingering Friday across the far south and east into Friday night. High pressure passes over the weekend, with dry weather expected. Temperature wise, used a consensus blend which has below normal temperatures settling in for the end of the week into the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 650 AM Sunday... Cold front crosses later this morning, clearing the mountains by midday. A broken line of SHRA may form along the front later this morning affecting eastern terminals, though VFR conditions should prevail. Post frontal MVFR stratus will overspread the area with some brief IFR CIGs possible, though not included with this issuance due to lack of confidence. -SHRA may linger at CKB/EKN/BKW into early afternoon. Stratus/stratocu will scatter this afternoon, though lingering longest at HTS/CRW/CKB/EKN. VFR conditions this evening at all terminals. Some river valley fog is expected overnight, which may affect some of the terminals, especially CRW. Light easterly flow veers to the south as cold front approaches early this morning. Gusty west winds are likely to follow the front later this morning before becoming light north to northwest this afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Showers may cause MVFR visibility restrictions this morning. Ceilings and gusty winds may vary on behind the front. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M H H L H H L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z MONDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...30