094 FXUS63 KILX 271805 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 105 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 1115 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2019 Updated the forecast late this morning to address chances of showers and an isolated thunderstorm rest of today and into mid evening. Increased wind speeds a bit more this afternoon and this evening with gusts of 20-30 mph and some adjustments to high temperatures today. More of a NNE to SSw temperature gradient today. Highs in the lower 50s from Galesburg, Peoria and Bloomington north (not much warmer than current temps), to the lower 60s sw of a Springfield to Terre Haute line. Highs in the mid 60s just sw of Winchester in Scott county and south of Clay, Richland and Lawrence counties. Light rain showers with a few embedded moderate rain showers were over much of central IL at late morning, though more isolated in eastern IL from I-57 east at 11 am. 16Z/11 am surface map shows 1000 mb low pressure along the southern NE/IA border. A frontal boundary extends eastward through central IL/IN, south of I-72. Temps at 11 am ranged from upper 40s at Galesburg and Lacon, to near 60 degrees in Lawrence county. Latest hi-res models move low pressure to near southern Scott and Morgan counties by 7 pm, near Terre Haute by 10 pm and just west of Cincinnati by 1 am tonight. Models have continued southward trend with low pressure track which brings chances of snow closer to our far northern CWA (Knox, Stark and Marshall counties) by this evening. Latest models showing more of a dry slot working into part of our sw/southern CWA during mid/late afternoon as convection become more isolated. SPC day1 outlook has a general risk of thunderstorms over much of IL today and kept an isolated chance of a thunderstorm over much of CWA this afternoon and early evening. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2019 Another storm system out over the Plains states this morning will bring the next round of precip today. Further to the north, well into some late season cold air, snow will be possible in northern IL. Though a few flakes may be mixed with the rain north of Galesburg on the edge of the ILX CWA...central portions of the state will see liquid precipitation today and tonight. The surface low has developed associated with an open wave aloft. This system moves through fairly quickly. The bigger question for this forecast is the prevalence of thunder. Models are a little sparse with instability. Model soundings are developing some MUCAPE later in the evening hours, but not expecting much in the way of organization. General area of ascent associated with the low, however, may defend at least a mention of sct ts through the short term. Even with the limited instability, already can see some scattered thunder to the west, so cannot rule it out. Tonight, cooler air filtering into the region, with winds coming around to more northerly as the clouds scour out from north to south. Temps dropping to at or below freezing for areas north of a line from Havana to Bloomington. Should see a little bit of impact from some of the late season snow well to the north as the winds advect some of that cooler air into Central IL. Have kept the mention of frost in the forecast...but holding off on the headline decision for now. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2019 High pressure returns at least briefly for Sunday, with mostly sunny skies and temps climbing into the 50s for Central Illinois. Winds veer throughout the day to more southeasterly by the afternoon/evening hours. Increasing clouds in the overnight Sunday and another upper wave bringing a round of precip chances will keep the temperatures up in the upper 40s overnight. Forecast through the next week is a bit unsettled with a slow deepening of the trough over the western half of the country. Increasingly southwesterly flow aloft pushes a series of weak waves into the mid Mississippi River Valley. Even with variation between models, the blended forecast from Monday to Thursday has rather widespread pops for Central IL. Excessive rainfall threat by WPC for days 1-3 remain out to the west/southwest. But for now, the seven day qpf totals are showing an expansive area of 2-3". The following week will be dominated by rain chances and temperatures close to seasonal averages. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 1259 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2019 18Z/1 pm surface map shows 1000 mb low pressure along the western MO/IA border with a warm front extending eastward into central IL south of I-72 and north of I-70. A large area of mainly light rain showers with few embedded moderate showers was over central and eastern IL, tracking quickly eastward. An isolated thunderstorm could affect SPI and DEC in next 1-2 hours and added VCTS to account for this possibility. Will need to see if CMI will be affected too by thunder starting at 19Z/2 pm. A dry slot to work into central IL during this afternoon as back edge of showers was just west of SPI and PIA at 18Z/1 pm. VFR conditions so far today but will likely see lower MVFR ceilings drop se to PIA and BMI late this afternoon and to I-72 early this evening. Low clouds to scattered out from the nw late tonight between 08-12Z. ESE to SE winds of 8-15 kts with gusts of 18-25 kts during this afternoon, to switch north to NNE between 23Z-02Z and could be a bit stronger for a time this evening before diminishing toward 10 kts later tonight and veer ENE Sunday morning. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...07 SHORT TERM...HJS LONG TERM...HJS AVIATION...07