747 FXUS65 KABQ 250932 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 332 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A back door cold front will move through eastern New Mexico this morning with windy north to northeast winds. The front will move onto the east slopes of the central mountain chain this afternoon and set the stage for showers and thunderstorms. The higher rain amounts will focus in the area from near Angel Fire to Raton and Des Moines. A few more showers and storms are possible Friday but warmer temperatures and drier conditions will keep activity mainly dry with gusty and erratic outflow winds. Another back door cold front will enter northeastern New Mexico Saturday with another round of showers and storms through Saturday night. Sunday will be dry, breezy, and warm over the entire area. The next storm system is on target for Monday and Tuesday with cooler temperatures, more wind, and better chances of showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... The overall weather pattern through the weekend will feature warmer temperatures, periodic frontal intrusions across eastern NM, and daily rounds of showers and storms along and east of the central mt chain. The first back door cold front is moving quickly south thru eastern CO early this morning and will push through Clayton around sunrise. North winds will briefly hit wind advisory criteria within Union County this morning. Surface winds will veer around to the east and southeast thru the day which will improve upslope flow along the central mt chain. Model guidance continues to trend toward greater coverage of showers and storms from the Sangre de Cristo Mts east into the high plains late today into tonight. QPF has also trended up with 0.25-0.50" possible along the CO border. Farther west into the RGV enough mid and low level moisture will be present for a few light showers with gusty and erratic outflow winds this evening. Friday will feature stronger and drier west to southwest flow over the region with much warmer temperatures. A few showers and storms with gusty and erratic outflows are still possible along and east of the central mt chain. Saturday will be similar to Friday but with even warmer temperatures and less coverage of dry shower activity. The next back door cold front will enter northeastern NM by late Saturday afternoon. Guidance is once again trending wetter with greater coverage of showers and storms along the CO border thru Saturday evening. This boundary will mix out quickly Sunday as flow aloft increases ahead of the next upper wave approaching from the west. Temperatures will be the warmest on Sunday with low humidity and widespread breezy west to southwest winds. The next system is on target for Monday and Tuesday and is again trending farther south and wetter with a moist back door cold front entering eastern NM. Guyer && .FIRE WEATHER... The drying trend will continue today most places, except the northern mountains and northeast highlands, where a gusty back door cold front will arrive with some improved moisture. The front will produce wind gusts up to 50 mph across the northeast plains for a while this morning. Meanwhile, a weak disturbance in northwest flow aloft will interact with the moisture to produce scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms along and east of the north central mountains this afternoon and evening. The front will push through gaps in the central mountain chain with a modestly gusty east canyon wind from Santa Fe southward tonight. In the wake of the front, much of the forecast area will experience a few percent of humidity improvement on Friday. A stronger disturbance will also cross the central and southern Rockies on Friday producing scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms across northern and central areas. Another back door cold front will dip into the northeast on Saturday with another chance of showers and thunderstorms along and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Except for some cooling across parts of the northeast today, highs are expected to continue an upward trend through the end of the week. Fire weather concerns will increase early next week as an upper level trough crosses the Four Corners region, and a broad, slow- moving upper level low pressure system then gradually crosses the northern and central Rockies. Models still differ on the timing of the upper level trough that will cross the Four Corners Monday through Tuesday or Tuesday night. However, southwest winds are expected to strengthen ahead of the system on Sunday, when gusts from 30 to 40 mph will be possible, with the strongest winds along and east of the central mountain chain. With widespread critically low humidities, Haines from 5 to 6 and high temperatures around 7 to 14 degrees above normal, widespread critical fire weather conditions are likely Sunday along and east of the central mountain chain. Critical conditions should abate Monday and Tuesday as the upper trough crossing the region draws a moist back door cold front through the plains and produces a chance of showers and thunderstorms across northern and eastern areas. However, dry air will invade from the southwest on Wednesday, and winds should again strengthen, with a risk of critical fire weather conditions becoming more widespread again in the east where high temperatures may still be above normal despite some cooling in the wake of the upper trough. 44 && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE A gusty back door cold front will dive southwestward through the northeast and east central plains this morning. It could push through gaps in the central mountain chain over ABQ and SAF toward mid day, but it's more likely that the front will do so Thursday night with a gusty east canyon wind. The front will increase moisture along the east slopes of the central mountain chain. A weak disturbance in northwest flow aloft will work with this moisture to produce scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms in the northern mountains, which will then track southeastward over the northeast highlands and plains during the afternoon and evening. Areas of low clouds will be possible along the east slopes of the central mountain chain Thursday night as southeasterly upslope flow persists. 44 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 78 48 80 48 / 0 5 5 5 Dulce........................... 73 37 75 38 / 5 10 20 10 Cuba............................ 72 43 74 44 / 0 10 20 5 Gallup.......................... 77 39 78 41 / 0 5 5 0 El Morro........................ 73 37 74 38 / 5 5 5 0 Grants.......................... 75 39 78 39 / 0 10 10 0 Quemado......................... 74 44 75 43 / 0 5 10 0 Glenwood........................ 83 46 85 50 / 0 5 5 0 Chama........................... 67 35 68 35 / 20 20 30 10 Los Alamos...................... 69 50 72 52 / 20 20 30 5 Pecos........................... 68 43 70 47 / 30 30 30 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 66 39 68 40 / 30 40 30 10 Red River....................... 57 35 60 36 / 40 50 40 10 Angel Fire...................... 60 32 63 32 / 40 40 20 10 Taos............................ 70 36 72 36 / 30 30 30 5 Mora............................ 65 39 69 43 / 30 40 30 5 Espanola........................ 75 47 77 47 / 10 20 30 5 Santa Fe........................ 68 46 70 48 / 20 30 30 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 73 45 76 45 / 5 20 20 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 77 52 79 54 / 0 20 20 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 78 54 80 54 / 0 20 10 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 80 51 82 52 / 0 20 10 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 79 52 81 54 / 0 20 10 5 Los Lunas....................... 80 47 81 48 / 0 20 10 5 Rio Rancho...................... 79 52 81 54 / 0 20 10 5 Socorro......................... 84 53 85 54 / 0 10 20 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 71 48 74 52 / 5 20 20 5 Tijeras......................... 74 48 77 50 / 5 20 20 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 75 40 78 42 / 0 20 20 5 Clines Corners.................. 70 41 73 45 / 20 30 20 5 Gran Quivira.................... 76 47 78 49 / 0 10 20 20 Carrizozo....................... 79 50 80 54 / 0 10 5 10 Ruidoso......................... 71 43 73 49 / 5 5 10 10 Capulin......................... 63 39 71 43 / 10 40 20 5 Raton........................... 69 37 75 40 / 20 40 20 5 Springer........................ 68 39 73 42 / 20 30 20 5 Las Vegas....................... 67 40 72 45 / 30 30 20 5 Clayton......................... 70 42 76 50 / 0 20 10 5 Roy............................. 69 43 72 48 / 10 20 20 5 Conchas......................... 78 48 81 52 / 0 20 10 10 Santa Rosa...................... 77 46 78 50 / 10 20 10 10 Tucumcari....................... 78 46 82 52 / 0 20 5 10 Clovis.......................... 77 46 77 52 / 0 10 5 10 Portales........................ 78 47 79 52 / 0 10 5 10 Fort Sumner..................... 78 49 78 52 / 0 20 5 10 Roswell......................... 86 53 84 55 / 0 5 5 5 Picacho......................... 79 49 80 55 / 0 5 10 10 Elk............................. 75 46 77 51 / 5 5 10 5 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$