131 FXUS64 KMOB 250315 AAB AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL 1015 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019 .DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below. && .UPDATE...Have updated to begin with mostly clear/partly cloudy skies which is followed by increasing cloudiness overnight. Have also made minor adjustments to current temperature/dewpoint and wind trends for the rest of the night. /29 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 620 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019/ DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. AVIATION... 00Z issuance...Light southeast winds to continue tonight with cig bases expected to lower to MVFR categories. Southerly winds increase Thursday, with gusts nearing 25 kts, bringing impacts to approaches and departures before strong to perhaps severe storms move in from the west by later in the day. /10 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 346 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019/ NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday night/...Models have all come into better consistency with regard to the timing of the next weather maker for our area on Thursday and Thursday night, although there are still uncertainties with regard to exact evolution and structure of the system. Global Models are in good agreement with moving upper level shortwave trough over eastern Texas early Thursday morning eastward toward our area during the day, approaching our western forecast area by around 00Z Friday. During the overnight on Thursday this upper trough moves east across our area, with a slight hint of a negative tilt. As the upper trough approaches, surface low pressure develops over eastern Texas and, dependent on model solution, moves east or northeast through Thursday night. GFS is much further north with the primary surface low placement as that solutions upper level energy lifts further north, while the ECMWF and most of the shorter ranged HiRes models keep the upper energy and surface low further south, moving it east just inland from the Gulf coast. As we previously mentioned, timing of the next round of weather is somewhat similar with all the models. A line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to be moving in from the west by late Thursday morning and then continue east across our forecast area during the overnight hours. Parameters for some strong to severe storms has increased slightly across our area, and after coordination with SPC most of our area will now be under a SLIGHT Risk of severe storms for the Thursday-Thursday night time period. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing ahead of the cold front to the west of our area across portions of the lower MS Valley early in the day, approaching our western MS zones by late morning or midday. Some of this activity might be organized with line and bowing segments, and may pose an ongoing threat for mainly isolated damaging wind gusts. Later in the afternoon and into the evening hours, increased low level onshore flow will advect mid to upper 60 degree dewpoints inland across the area, with MLCAPE values generally increasing to 1000-1500 J/Kg, especially over the southern portions of our forecast area, near the coast. At the same time, an 850 mb jet of about 30 to 40 knots is expected to develop across the area as well, and coupled with a mid level jet accompanying the shortwave aloft, surface to 500 MB Bulk Shear potentially reaching 50 to 60 knots. In addition, SFC-1 KM Storm Relative Helicity up to around 300 M2/S2. This environment should promote a few organized storms embedded within lines and clusters with bowing segments and a few supercells possible supporting a threat for mainly isolated damaging wind and possibly a few tornadoes as activity develops east during the day and early evening. There is some signal in model guidance that a convective complex may develop to the south of our area out over the Gulf of Mexico, which could potentially diminish the threat over inland areas, so we will have to keep an eye out for that potential. After midnight Thursday night, the line of thunderstorms is expected to be gradually weakening and moving east into our far eastern counties. 12/DS SHORT TERM /Friday Through Saturday night/...As the upper shortwave trough departs to the east of the area on Friday, a drier west to northwest deep-layer flow sets up across much of the region. At the surface, high pressure builds over the local area in the wake of a cold front, bringing north winds initially on Friday before shifting to easterly and then back to southerly by Saturday as the high continues to push east of the area. High temps change little behind the front as plentiful sunshine will push us into the upper 70s to low 80s Friday and Saturday afternoons. Overnight temps will trend a few degrees cooler, however, given the drier air moving in and clear skies for efficient radiative cooling. Expect lows Friday and Saturday nights to dip into the low to mid 50s inland and upper 50s to around 60 along the immediate coast. /49 LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...Another quick hitting upper shortwave passes by on Sunday, bringing a front south into northern and central AL/MS where it stalls north of the local area. No rain chances expected in our area with this front as we will likely be moisture starved and forcing will be too weak. Only impact will be some increased cloudiness over inland areas on Sunday. The front lifts away to the north by Monday as high pressure builds into the eastern Gulf and a well-established southerly flow sets up. An upper ridge builds over the area early next week, bringing sunny skies and warm weather through the remainder of the long term period. Southerly surface flow maintains steady moisture levels and dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. High temps Sunday through Wednesday reach the low 80s along the coast and mid to upper 80s inland. Some locations inland could touch 90 degrees on Monday and Tuesday. The next weather-maker impacts the area late next week, just beyond the current forecast period. More on this in future updates. /49 MARINE...An increasing onshore flow is expected thursday and Thursday evening as a cold front approaches the marine area from the west. In advance of this front, winds and seas build to SCA conditions offshore and over southern Mobile Bay and the Mississippi Sound, with SCEC over remaining area bays. A line of potentially strong thunderstorms will move east across the marine area from late morning through early evening, with higher winds and seas possible. The front moves east of the marine area by early Friday, bringing a moderate offshore flow which will last into Friday night. A light onshore flow returns on Saturday, and is expected to last into the coming week. 12/DS && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk from 10 AM CDT Thursday through Friday morning for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk from 10 AM CDT Thursday through Friday morning for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Thursday to 5 PM CDT Friday for GMZ631-632-650-655-670-675. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob