507 
FXUS63 KICT 242313
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
613 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

Tonight:
The only item to watch is the potential for patchy fog developing
in Southeast & those areas of South-Central KS as far W as Butler
& Cowley counties late tonight & very early Thu mornings by which
time a weak inverted sfc ridge will have ventured into this area,
scouring the low Stratocu deck from these same areas.

Thu:
A SE-surging cold front is still scheduled to cross KICT Country,
reaching SE KS late in the morning. The post-frontal pressure
gradient is fairly tight which would boost the onsetting Nly 
winds. The tight gradient, which would increase momentum transfer,
warranted pressing harder on the throttle with sustained 20-30 
mph speeds & ~35 mph gusts in most areas by midday. The momentum 
transfer would induce sufficient mixing to actually produce warmer
weather across South-Central & especially Southeast KS in the 
afternoon. The north winds would diminish quickly Thu eve as an 
inverted ridge punches into Western KS.

Fri-Sat:
The next mid/upper shortwave is scheduled to cross the Northern
Rockies on Fri & strengthen as it surges ESE across the Northern
Plains on Sat. This would send the next cold front rapidly SE
across KS on Sat with the front exiting Southeast KS Sat
afternoon. With the strengthening mid/upper shortwave inducing
stronger sfc cyclogenesis over the northwestern plains late Fri
night, the cold front would have considerably greater moisture to
interact with. This would produce a well-defined period of showers
& a few thunderstorms, especially late Fri night. The rapidly
progressive pattern would have all showers/thunderstorms out of
Southeast KS by early Sat morning.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

Numerous showers & thunderstorms are likely for all periods.
Severe thunderstorms are now probable Mon afternoon over primarily
Southeast KS when yet another cold front would surge across KS so
stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

Light winds are expected across the area tonight. This in
combination with residual near surface moisture should promote 
some fog with MVFR and areas of IFR vsbys toward dawn. Patchy 
MVFR cigs will also linger across southeast Kansas tonight. 
Brisk north winds will develop behind a cold frontal passage
by mid to late morning on Thursday with SCT-BKN VFR bases and 
cigs.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    51  74  45  74 /   0  10   0  10 
Hutchinson      47  74  43  74 /   0  10   0  10 
Newton          49  74  44  73 /   0  10   0  10 
ElDorado        50  74  45  73 /   0  10   0  10 
Winfield-KWLD   51  75  44  74 /   0  10   0  10 
Russell         47  73  44  76 /   0  10   0  10 
Great Bend      48  73  44  75 /   0  10   0  10 
Salina          49  73  43  74 /   0  10   0  10 
McPherson       47  73  43  73 /   0  10   0  10 
Coffeyville     52  75  46  75 /   0  10   0   0 
Chanute         51  75  45  74 /   0  10   0   0 
Iola            51  74  45  73 /   0  10   0   0 
Parsons-KPPF    52  75  45  74 /   0  10   0   0 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...KED