057 FXUS61 KBGM 240510 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Binghamton NY 110 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and a few weak thunderstorms are expected into this evening ahead of an advancing cold front. Rain tapers off after midnight with high pressure building into the region Wednesday into Thursday before another area of low pressure comes northeast into the region on Friday with additional chances for rain. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... A cold front continues to move east of the region early this morning. With the midnight update, we opted to end precipitation chances a little earlier across the Southern Catskills and NE PA based on current trends. A cloudy and cool night is still expected. 830 pm update...A surface low is located north of Lake Ontario with an attendant cold front which is now working its way across western NY. Winds shift westerly and temperatures cool behind the front (now in the 40s from IAG to BUF and JHW). Just out ahead of this front we still have a broad band of showers moving across Central NY and NE PA early this evening...there have been a few lightning strikes across north-central PA earlier, so there could be an isolated t'storm in NE PA over the next few hours. Instability is really lacking, with the latest SPC mesoanalysis only showing a small sliver of 250 J/Kg MLCAPE into Steuben county. This tongue of instability will work east, just ahead of the cold front. Parameters are much for favorable for organized convection across south-central PA where MLCAPE is over 500 J/Kg and bulk effective layer shear is approaching 50 kts. Will need to watch parts of NE PA carefully between now and midnight to see if some of this stronger convection can push into the area. For the rest of Central NY and NE PA, the showers and embedded thundershowers will quickly move east; exiting the area around or just after midnight. After midnight, a breezy and colder west-northwest flow takes hold of the region with stratus cloud and a few upslope rain showers possible. Winds will be 10-20 mph with a few higher gusts over the hilltops. Lows dip into the upper 30s to mid-40s areawide. A stratus cloud deck lingers well into Wednesday morning for much of central NY...and begins to break up across NE PA by late morning. There could still be a few rain showers around across the higher terrain north of Binghamton in central NY. The low stratus clouds scatter out from south to north during the afternoon...but it could remain mostly cloudy through the day from about Auburn--Cortland--Norwich--Oneonta and points north. Breezy and cool with northwest winds 10-20 mph and gusty. Highs reach 55-65 for NE PA...but only 45-55 in central NY (coolest across the hilltops of the northern Susquehanna and Catskills region). Wednesday night: Skies clear and winds diminish as a surface high pressure system builds overhead. It will be dry and cool with lows in the 30s for most locations. Patchy frost will be possible in the normally colder valley locations. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... 230 pm update... High pressure over the area Thursday morning gets quickly pushed east as low pressure in the Ohio Valley moves over CNY Friday morning. A broad upper level trough moves into the area behind the low late Friday. Rain should hold off during the day Thursday but will move in during the evening. A deep southerly flow will bring rain and moisture all the way from the Gulf of Mexico. Rainfall amounts expected to be around an inch Thursday night through Friday. Left pops as likely but should increase with models coming more in line. Temperatures are above or near normal this period. Highs in the mid and upper 60s Thursday fall to around 60 Friday with clouds and rain. Thursday night lows mostly in the 40s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... 230 pm update... Friday night some lingering showers in the east as the upper level trough moves through. Saturday some moisture wraps all the way around the stacked storm in eastern Canada and into the Mohawk Valley and Tug. Cooler temperatures with lows in the 30s and highs in the 50s. Maybe cold enough for some snow to mix with the rain late Friday night . The rest of the period will be active as the flow becomes zonal and the northern stream stays across the Great Lakes. Models not agreeing well on the timing of the specific storms. Periods of showers with the best chances on Sunday and Tuesday. Again cold enough in CNY at the higher terrain and Oneida County for snow to mix in late at night and first thing in the morning. Wide range of temperatures withe the warmest temperatures in the south. Highs mid 50s to mid 60s. Lows mid 30s to mid 40s. && .AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Tonight and Wednesday... An MVFR cloud deck will build into all TAF sites but AVP and possibly KELM by 09Z. The main uncertainty with this deck is potential variations that can occasionally reach or go slightly lower than fuel alternate values. Northwest wind gusts around 20 knots are likely overnight through much of the day Wednesday. Ceilings will be slow to lift to VFR Wednesday afternoon with KITH and KBGM earlier than KRME and KSYR. Outlook... Thursday... VFR expected. Thursday night into Friday... Restrictions possible with showers. Friday night and Saturday... Predominately VFR. Sunday... Restrictions possible in rain showers. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJT/MJM NEAR TERM...BJT/MJM/MWG SHORT TERM...TAC LONG TERM...TAC AVIATION...MWG