718 FXUS61 KBGM 240017 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Binghamton NY 817 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and a few weak thunderstorms are expected into this evening ahead of an advancing cold front. Rain tapers off after midnight with high pressure building into the region Wednesday into Thursday before another area of low pressure comes northeast into the region on Friday with additional chances for rain. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... 3 pm update... Main concern in the near term remains focused on the potential for showers and even a few thunderstorms this afternoon and evening ahead of an advancing cold front, with the main threat being brief heavy downpours and gusty winds. High pressure that brought the beautiful sunny skies and pleasant conditions to much of the region this morning has shifted off to the east this afternoon. An area of low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes, with an upper low back to the nw, will move into far srn Quebec tonight as a trailing cold front drags its way through NY and PA this afternoon and evening. Showers and thunderstorms have developed in wrn PA and wrn NY early this afternoon and are starting to move into the forecast area as of 3 pm. Temperatures have risen into the lower 70s over much of the area, with enough heating in the boundary layer to produce a slight amt of instability. A 60kt upper jet and embedded s/w rounding the trough across wrn PA is providing the necessary dynamics to lift the air mass within about 1 inch PWATs to produce widely scattered rain showers. The available instability, 40 kt of deep layer shear and fairly steep mid level lapse rates will prove sufficient for a few weak thunderstorms as well into the evening hours. The main threat will be brief heavy downpours...with some isolated areas seeing around a quarter to half inch in a very short time. Cannot rule out a strong gust of wind mixing down to the surface either. The cold front and associated showers will taper off after midnight tonight with most areas clear of rain by sunrise Wednesday. An unseasonably cold punch of air on the back side of the system will push in late tonight and through the day Wednesday. Cloud cover tonight and enough mixing in the low levels will keep temperatures in the 40s. However, on Wednesday temperatures will have a very hard time getting above 50 where the clouds stick around from Syracuse to Delhi...and into the lower to mid 60s to the south and west. A tight surface pressure gradient will develop on Wednesday and trigger sustained NW winds around 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph possible through the afternoon. Winds weaken Wednesday night with high pressure building in from the west. Cloud cover will scatter out and temperatures will cool into the mid to upper 30s with light and variable winds. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 230 pm update... High pressure over the area Thursday morning gets quickly pushed east as low pressure in the Ohio Valley moves over CNY Friday morning. A broad upper level trough moves into the area behind the low late Friday. Rain should hold off during the day Thursday but will move in during the evening. A deep southerly flow will bring rain and moisture all the way from the Gulf of Mexico. Rainfall amounts expected to be around an inch Thursday night through Friday. Left pops as likely but should increase with models coming more in line. Temperatures are above or near normal this period. Highs in the mid and upper 60s Thursday fall to around 60 Friday with clouds and rain. Thursday night lows mostly in the 40s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... 230 pm update... Friday night some lingering showers in the east as the upper level trough moves through. Saturday some moisture wraps all the way around the stacked storm in eastern Canada and into the Mohawk Valley and Tug. Cooler temperatures with lows in the 30s and highs in the 50s. Maybe cold enough for some snow to mix with the rain late Friday night . The rest of the period will be active as the flow becomes zonal and the northern stream stays across the Great Lakes. Models not agreeing well on the timing of the specific storms. Periods of showers with the best chances on Sunday and Tuesday. Again cold enough in CNY at the higher terrain and Oneida County for snow to mix in late at night and first thing in the morning. Wide range of temperatures withe the warmest temperatures in the south. Highs mid 50s to mid 60s. Lows mid 30s to mid 40s. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Tonight and Wednesday...00Z TAFs starting out VFR at all sites w/ showers too light to cause visibility restrictions. Additionally, the back edge of the showers ahead of a cold front, which is quickly progressing eastward thru our western terminals at 00Z, should clear KAVP last around 02Z. The passage of the cold front will occur from west to east between 01-04Z and be marked by a wind shift from S to W. Wind gusts between 15-25 kt can be expected overnight at times. Also, post-frontal stratocu will result in MVFR CIGs for most terminals. The longest duration of MVFR CIGs and highest probability of fuel alternate restrictions (with CIGs between 1-2 kft AGL) will set up farther north closer to the I-90 terminals in CNY (KSYR and KRME). Improvement to VFR is likely at BGM-ELM either late morning or early afternoon as the southern edge of the stratocu mixes out. Improvement to VFR may not occur until late in the afternoon at KITH-KSYR and possibly not until the evening at KRME. Winds will gradually weaken late in the day. Outlook... Wednesday night through Thursday... VFR expected. Thursday night into Friday... Restrictions possible with showers. Friday night and Saturday... Predominately VFR. Sunday... Vsby and ceiling restrictions possible in rain showers. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJT NEAR TERM...BJT SHORT TERM...TAC LONG TERM...TAC AVIATION...BJT/JRK