622 FXUS65 KTFX 232022 CCA AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Great Falls MT 222 PM MDT Tue Apr 23 2019 ...Corrected to add Flood Advisory for Meagher County... .SYNOPSIS... Seasonably warm and breezy conditions are expected Wednesday across the region, with a few showers possible across parts of far southwest and north-central Montana in association with a passing disturbance. A cold front brings cooler temperatures to north- central Montana Thursday, with continued seasonable temperatures continuing over southwest Montana. && .DISCUSSION... Tuesday through Thursday...Strong cross-barrier westerly flow continues into tonight with fast-moving disturbances moving through the flow. Winds will gradually diminish into this evening over north- central and central Montana with the loss of daytime heating. After midnight tonight, a cold front drops south toward the Hi-Line and become stationary into Wednesday, with the leftover boundary serving as a focus for potential shower activity Wednesday afternoon primarily north and east of Great Falls. To the south of this boundary across central MT, winds will increase in the afternoon with warm temperatures well into the 60s to near 70 along, resulting in an elevated grass fire danger in the valley grassland areas where grasses may not have greened up yet. Along and south of Interstate 90, showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will be possible in the late morning into early afternoon hours as the disturbance passes through before skies clear and winds increase in the late afternoon. A stronger surface cold front pushes south through north-central Montana into central Montana late Wednesday night into early Thursday. A few showers and possibly a weak thunderstorm will be possible as the front dives south into our area. As the front becomes stationary along the central mountains and the Rocky Mountain Front, westerly flow aloft will overrun easterly upslope flow and result in increasing clouds through the day Thursday, and especially so Thursday night into Friday. Friday through Tuesday...A trough digs into the area Friday into the weekend and results in a significant pattern change to much cooler and wetter conditions. As of this time, confidence is high on the approach of this system, cooling temperatures and a forecast of rain by day and a rain/snow mix, becoming snowfall by night. There is some uncertainty, however, in precipitation beginning and end times. However, it would appear accumulating snow (especially during the nighttime periods Saturday and Sunday nights) is a distinct possibility across parts of the region during this period. The National Weather Service National Blended Model favors increased chances of precipitation beginning Friday morning and continuing into Tuesday, though it will surely not precipitate the entire time. We continue to monitor this approaching system and adjust our forecast, as needed, as we get closer in time to the event. && .AVIATION... Updated 540 AM MDT Tue Apr 23 2019 Westerly cross-barrier flow results in gusty winds throughout the Team tfx forecast area. The strongest winds will be expected along The Northern Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains. Expect turbulence particularly near mountains. Light precipitation is expected in The Great Divide, as well as the mountains of central Montana. Most precipitation over lower elevations will evaporate before reaching the ground; however, some light rain may reach the surface, intermittently. Expect mountain obscurations to occur during this TAF period. VFR conditions prevail at all TAF locations. -Fogleman && .FIRE WEATHER... There will be an elevated grass fire danger across central and southwest valley grasslands Wednesday afternoon into early evening. Gusty west winds, seasonably warm temperatures, and minimum relative humidity values in the upper teens to mid-20s are likely. The grass fire danger will be elevated where grasses have yet to green up from dormancy over the winter. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 43 63 37 55 / 10 10 0 0 CTB 37 59 33 54 / 20 20 10 10 HLN 44 68 33 62 / 10 10 0 0 BZN 40 65 31 63 / 10 20 0 0 WEY 33 55 25 58 / 50 30 20 10 DLN 40 66 32 65 / 10 10 0 0 HVR 41 63 35 55 / 20 20 20 10 LWT 42 60 34 54 / 10 20 10 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Stream Flood Advisory for central Meagher County until further notice. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls