985 
FXUS64 KLUB 211107
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
607 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours. Southwesterly
winds will become more westerly and increase to 15-20 kts this
afternoon. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 244 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...
Another warm and breezy day today. Winds will veer to southwest
and west as a short wave trough moves out of Colorado toward
Nebraska and the Dakotas. That veering of winds will add several
degrees to temperatures this afternoon as a result of the added
downslope component. A cold front in the wake of that shortwave
will make it into the forecast area Monday morning, likely
stalling somewhere across the northern half of the forecast area
as a closed upper low moves southeastward over Arizona. Models
continue to try to break out some thunderstorms along the
stationary front Monday afternoon, although there is some
potential for a mid level cap to hold until evening at which point
more widespread precipitation is likely to develop, as large scale
ascent increases in the northeast quadrant of the upper low.
Models have held firm in slowly moving the upper low to near El 
Paso by Wednesday morning. This should result in a fairly extended
window for rainfall across the forecast from Monday night through
Tuesday night before the low opens and moves more quickly
eastward. This timing still supports precipitation coming to an
end across the forecast area by Thursday morning. All-in-all, not
a lot in the way of change this morning. Confidence remains high 
in the likelihood of rain, especially Monday night through Tuesday
evening and have pushed PoPs a little higher as a result.

FIRE WEATHER...
Warm, dry, and breezy conditions are still expected across the
South Plains and extreme southwestern Panhandle. However given the
degree of greenup that has occurred it seems that the combination
of temperature, wind and humidity elements may not quite be high
enough to justify a Fire Danger Statement. Will hold off for now
and let the day shift monitor trends throughout the day.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/08