798 FXUS62 KMLB 210800 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 400 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2019 .DISCUSSION... Current...Axis of potent, negative-tilt mid/upper trough now extends from the OH Valley to offshore the NE/ECFL coast early this morning as large surface high pressure covering most of the GOMEX continues to slide east toward Florida. 3.9UM IR imagery shows a few lingering patches of broken mid clouds over the peninsula, which are rapidly breaking up and exiting into the Atlantic. CCAFS DRWP imagery shows BLYR W-SW winds of 10-15KT slowly diminishing. Cooler/drier air has taken hold across the area, as 07Z/3AM temps show U50s-L60s with TDs in the U40s-L50s. Today-tonight...trough aloft will lift NE well away from the region as ridging starts to rebuild in its wake. GOMEX surface high will continue to slide E-ENE as its center moves into the SE CONUS and the northern half of Florida. Deep layer dry air mass in place will keep skies sunny today/clear tonight with pleasantly warm max temps (U70s) and cooler than normal mins (L50s). A few interior/northern spots could reach the U40s while the barrier islands of the southern Treasure Coast stay in the M50s. A light W-NW breeze will shift to NW along the coast with the late afternoon Atlantic sea breeze. Mon-Wed...Broad high pressure will start the week blanketed from the Carolinas to much of the Gulf of Mex. After a cool start of L-M50s in the morning, temperatures will quickly rebound under sunny skies with light winds. The area of high pressure will settle closer to the local area on Tue bringing pleasant, but warmer temperatures with highs making it well into the 80s with an afternoon sea breeze. Ridging will lose much influence by late Wed with a little more afternoon cloudiness and some sea breeze related cooling along the coast. Extended Period...The next feature of interest is a rather slow moving upr low, which shows signs of becoming partially cutoff over the Lwr MS valley on Thu, but progressing as a single entity toward the SE states late in the week. Med range guid currently indicates modest instability spreading into the region late Thu night with increasing clouds and moisture. Will introduce increased PoP during Fri, with moisture and some forced ascent/cooling aloft to allow for storms the as upr feature nears the area from the Gulf of Mex. Main window for precip currently exists both Fri and into Fri night, and thunder will be mentioned for both periods attm. Should feature move as slow as presently depicted, a lingering chc of pcpn would exist into Sat, esp over the central and southern zones. && .AVIATION...VFR/SKC. && .MARINE...Today/tonight...high pressure building toward Florida will result in slackening offshore flow that will veer to NW-N from about SIPF1 northward, and NE to the south of there. 2-4FT seas today will drop back to 2-3FT tonight. Mon-Wed...Favorable marine conditions over the open waters for much of the upcoming week as broad high pressure dominates the region the first half of this week. Winds generally AoB 10 kts, with seas 2-3 ft near shore and 3-4 ft offshore. Extended Period...Approaching system from the gulf Thu will increase winds and seas into late Thu with feature drawing across the local waters Fri into Late Fri. Winds and seas will be locally higher near showers and storms, perhaps into Saturday as well. && .FIRE WEATHER...This afternoon RH values will drop to some of the lower values we've seen during the dry season (M20s). However, winds will remain about 5KT or so below RFW thresholds. High pressure will bring dryer conditions to start the work week. Expect temperatures slightly below normal through Monday, then a warming trend into late this week. RHs will rise beginning at the coast on Monday as flow becomes onshore. Another chance of rain returns around Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 76 52 78 57 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 79 53 83 59 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 77 56 79 60 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 79 55 80 59 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 78 52 84 60 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 79 53 82 59 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 78 54 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 78 55 80 57 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cristaldi LONG TERM....Pendergrast