075 
FXUS64 KLUB 210527
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1227 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

.AVIATION...

Winds will remain breezy overnight with low level windshear before
becoming more southwesterly this afternoon. 

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 252 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...
Another very warm day is on track for Sunday before a period of more 
active weather beginning on Monday.

A short wave will move over the Texas panhandle on Sunday afternoon. 
This will continue to bring breezy downsloping winds with surface 
lee cyclogenesis from southeastern Colorado through southwestern 
Kansas. Temperatures will rise even more than today with 
afternoon temperatures topping out in the 90s for the Rolling 
Plains and portions of the South Plains.

A change in the weather will come from Monday through Wednesday next 
week. This change will stem from a slow moving upper low in the 
southwestern US. The system is currently moving onshore as a trough 
in the Pacific Northwest. It will close off as it moves into the 
intermountain west. Winds aloft will begin to back early Monday as 
an upper level jet strengthens to our southwest. Models are in fair 
agreement bringing a short wave across the area on Monday 
afternoon/evening ahead of the parent low. Models also slow the 
front down stalling around the southern Texas Panhandle on Monday 
ahead of this short wave. Overall, the next few days are a fair 
representation of the Maddox synoptic heavy rain setup with a short 
wave aloft and a quasi-stationary front parallel to upper level 
flow. We will see a rapid increase in precipitable water values on 
Monday ahead of the arrival of the first short wave. During the day 
on Monday, models generate a healthy amount of mixed layer CAPE 
south of the frontal boundary where surface heating would be 
plentiful along with a good influx of low level moisture. Progged
instability values are on the order of 1500-2000 J/kg. This will 
lead to the potential for some severe storms from Monday afternoon
through the evening hours.

The front will punch farther to the south on Tuesday leaving much of 
the forecast area in cooler air north of the front. However, 
strengthening lift late Tuesday will continue to promote high
precipitation chances. Precipitation chances may ultimately 
depend on the location of the surface front as it meanders to the 
south on Tuesday. The slow moving upper low will eventually move 
overhead on Wednesday ending precipitation by early Thursday. 
Upper level ridging for the rest of the week will lead to surface 
warming and drying.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/08