556 FXUS64 KLCH 210150 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 850 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019 .DISCUSSION... Wx map shows center of the sfc high over northern Gulf of Mexico just off the LA coast this evening. Light southwest winds continue over SE TX and SW LA with calm winds elsewhere. Most areas should be either calm to light and variable overnight. With the clear skies and continued dry airmass in place, Easter Sunday lows expected in the mid/upper 40s across C LA north of I-10, lower to mid 50s elsewhere, except for lower 60s along the coast. Ongoing forecast on track with no updates needed. DML && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 606 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019/ AVIATION...VFR through the period. Winds will be light and vrb tonight and become south and gusty at times Sunday. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 406 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019/ DISCUSSION... Quite a nice afternoon across the forecast area, with nary a cloud in the sky, light winds, and temperatures generally in the mid 70s. Region remains in deep NW flow aloft on the back side of a highly amplified ERN CONUS trof, with an axis of high over E TX imparting a light westerly flow at the SFC. Benign weather is on tap for the next couple of days as the SFC high traverses the area tonight and continues eastward into the SE CONUS by MON. Aloft, ridging currently over the Central/Southern Plains will slide overhead tomorrow, and into the Central Gulf coast states by MON. Combination of warming thermal profiles and return southerly flow will yield a moderating/warming temperature trend, with high temperatures by MON reaching around 80. As for lows, one last relatively cool morning is on tap SUN, with near and then above normal readings expected MON and TUE respectively. Clouds will start to impinge into the western parts of the area by late SUN into MON, with an increase in areawide cloud cover on TUE as boundary layer MSTR increases and SW flow aloft ushers in increasing mid/upper level MSTR. Still some uncertainty with the weather mid week, as global models continue to differ on some important details. Overall, the timing remains generally unchanged from yesterday, with widespread showers and thunderstorms expected late WED into THU as an upper level trof and associated SFC low trek across the region. Current progs indicate that there could be some risk of strong/severe TSTMS, in addition to a risk of locally heavy rainfall. Activity is currently expected to end from W to E by FRI, but this timing is one of the points of uncertainty. 13 MARINE... Winds will continue to transition to a southerly direction tonight as surface high pressure pushes east of the region. An onshore flow, modest at times, will remain in place through mid week, with a storm system bringing a good chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday. 13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 46 78 53 79 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 54 77 60 79 / 0 0 0 10 LFT 51 78 56 80 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 56 77 63 79 / 0 0 0 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC...08