783 FXUS63 KFGF 201801 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 101 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 1258 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019 Tweeked pops a bit thru this evening. Mid level moisture continues to stream east across the area and at the same time a cool front is moving slowly southeast. Warmest temps still in far SE ND into WC MN today with 70s and cooler north with lower 60s. Light showers will continue to mostly aloft as sub cloud layer remains quite dry. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 346 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019 Water vapor loop indicated an upper low over southern CA. Upper low will move into NE by Sun afternoon. Precipitable water rises to over an inch for this afternoon and slide southeast overnight. General thunder is expected this afternoon and evening mainly in the southern zones. Showalters run negative for the afternoon and overnight in the south. Frontal boundary over southern Canada will move south for today. Low level convergence expected for today and tonight. Added chance for thunder in the southern zones. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 346 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019 Large scale split-flow over CONUS, with nearby progressive northern stream remaining mainly over Canada, with increasing model spread on tracking evolution of embedded shortwaves by next weekend. Sunday night-Monday night: Baroclinic zone sags southeast of our CWA, but here may be a enough weak forcing and moisture advection to sneak some showers into our far southeast CWA (west central MN) as depicted by light precip signal with GFS/ECMWF. Overall, thinking these periods are likely dry even in our south based on current track, but held onto slight chance for now. Despite low level flow remaining northeast and cooler air mass remaining in place, consensus of guidance is still supporting temps above normal (lows upper 30s/near 40 and highs around 60). Tuesday-Wednesday night: Shortwave ridging, followed by westerly flow, and then another shortwave trough passage during these periods. Dry conditions Tuesday-Tuesday night transitioning to another possible round of scattered light rain showers/isolated thunderstorms (some instability) Wednesday-Wednesday night. Pattern will support WAA and increasing temps and depending on timing of shortwave Wed we may have another day of potential 70F in parts of our CWA. Thursday-Saturday: Less confidence as there is large spread in ensemble/deterministic evolutions of troughs during these periods. Current consensus favors dry conditions Thursday-Thursday night and possible precip chances increasing Fri-Sat (though this is where guidance really begins to vary on details). Mean heights do decrease and consensus/mean temps start to decrease below normal by next weekend, but there is still ensemble support for the opposite to occur (not a reason at this range to deviate from mean). && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 1258 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019 A weak cold front will drop slowly southeast thru the evening turning winds in BJI and FAR to the north and then northeast at 10 kts mid to late aftn. Otherwise mid level moisture with areas of thicker altocu. Cigs thru the pd expected to be AOA 8000 ft agl. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 313 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019 River levels along the North Dakota tributaries are becoming more stable and beginning to fall as we head into the weekend. The Sheyenne River at Kindred will rise slowly through Saturday morning, remaining in minor flood stage before beginning a falling trend. Other locations in West Fargo and Harwood will slowly fall through the upcoming weekend and into next week. The Maple River at both Enderlin and Mapleton is currently falling with this trend expected to continue through the forecast period. River levels within the northwestern Minnesota tributaries are generally falling with only the Buffalo River at Dilworth still experiencing slight rises. The Marsh River was falling slightly faster than the forecast and has since been adjusted, otherwise the river forecasts are on track this morning. Forecast points along the Red River will experience rises along the far southern and far northern points during the next 7 days. Wahpeton, Hickson, and Fargo will see rises through the weekend and into next week in response to rain that fell earlier this week. The Red River at Fargo will return to major flood stage today and remain there through at least the end of next week. Looking at Halstad and East Grand Forks, the Red River will gradually fall but remain in moderate flood stage through at least the end of next week. The Red River at Oslo is expected to experience slight variations but remain mostly stable through the middle of next week. Further north, crests have not yet been seen and river levels will continue to rise. For Drayton, a crest will occur sometime this weekend with Pembina seeing a crest by the end of next week. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. Areal and river point flood warnings continue across portions of the region. Refer to the latest flood warnings and statements for detailed information on specific locations. && $$ UPDATE...Riddle SHORT TERM...JH LONG TERM...DJR AVIATION...Riddle HYDROLOGY...Lynch