755 FXUS65 KABQ 200530 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1130 PM MDT Fri Apr 19 2019 .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE VFR conditions are currently in place across northern and central New Mexico and should hold through the next 24 hours over most of the area. As the ridge of high pressure moves east, a short wave trough will lift over the Four Corners region late Saturday, inducing a few showers and thunderstorms, mostly over the northern mountains. Otherwise breezy to windy conditions will take shape with the strongest speeds being found along and south of the Interstate 40 corridor where occasional gusts of 30 to 35 kt are forecast. Winds will diminish around sunset Saturday. 52 && .PREV DISCUSSION...248 PM MDT Fri Apr 19 2019... .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain overhead through Saturday morning, ahead of a weak Pacific storm system forecast to move through northern New Mexico Saturday. Southwest winds associated with this system will increase on Saturday afternoon while a few light showers develop over the northern mountains. Breezy to locally windy conditions return Sunday afternoon, ahead of another Pacific storm system. This system is forecast to bring cooler conditions to eastern New Mexico Monday along with a chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly over the western and northern mountains. Chances for showers and thunderstorms spread into other areas of the state Tuesday and Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Upper-level ridge axis near the NM/AZ line this afternoon will continue sliding eastward this evening and overnight. The weak closed low just off the southern CA coast looking rather anemic on satellite imagery this afternoon. It's this feature and the associated sub- tropical jet that will result in increasing winds for most locales Saturday afternoon, along with a few high based showers over the northern mountains Saturday afternoon and early evening. Sunday still looking like an in-between upper-level trough day with breezy to locally windy conditions developing during the afternoon and continuing through early evening. At the same time west and southwest winds diminish Sunday evening, a relatively strong backdoor cold front will slide into northeast NM. Meanwhile in the upper- levels of the atmosphere, a closed low will be dropping south and southeast through the Great Basin Monday. These two features will likely combine to produce an active weather period Monday through at least Wednesday next week. NAM continues to keep the atmosphere rather stable behind the backdoor front on Monday while the GFS is more active. Main takeaway is that any showers and storms that develop behind the front Monday will likely be during the late afternoon/peak heating. Strong convection developing over southeast CO is forecast to send a reinforcing shot of cooler and more moist air from the northeast Monday night into Tuesday. Main model trend today is more progressive, taking the the upper low east of NM Tuesday night. Residual moisture hangs around for a round of showers and storms Wednesday afternoon but not the widespread showers and storms of previous model runs. Models agree that an upper-level ridge in the southern stream moves in for Thursday and Friday with perhaps another trough for next weekend. 33 && .FIRE WEATHER... A large ridge of upper level high pressure over New Mexico tonight will slide to the east of the state early Saturday morning. Southwest winds will be light tonight, but speeds will stay above 5 mph in most locations. Drier low level air will move across western New Mexico tonight. The combination of light but persistent winds tonight and drier air moving in from the southwest will result in poor recovery in the higher elevations of western New Mexico and fair recovery across the remainder of the region. On Saturday, a weak low pressure area will move across northern New Mexico, bringing light rain and high elevation snow to northwest and north central portions of the state. Snow levels will be above 9,000 feet. Surface low pressure will develop across eastern Colorado and northwest Texas Saturday afternoon, and southwest winds will increase to between 15 and around 20 mph. At elevations below the snow pack, afternoon relative humidity will fall below 15 percent areawide Saturday afternoon. Marginal wind speeds and low humidity coupled with above normal temperatures will produce marginally critical fire weather conditions Saturday afternoon across the northeast plains, the high central plains east of the central mountains and the west central highlands. The Fire Weather Watch for FWZ014, FWZ107 and FWZ109 will be continued for Saturday afternoon and early evening. However, the Fire Weather Watch for the east central plains, FWZ108, and the Middle Rio Grande Valley, FWZ106, will be cancelled due to recent rainfall this past Wednesday and the spring green-up underway. Ventilation rates will become excellent across the entire area early Saturday afternoon. A dry west flow on Sunday will keep daytime temperatures above normal and afternoon relative humidity below 15 percent in the lower elevations. The limiting factor for critical fire weather conditions on Sunday will be the lower wind speeds. A few areas may exceed 20 mph for one or two hours, but most areas will remain below the 20 mph threshold. Ventilation rates on Sunday will be excellent across the entire area. A slow moving low pressure system will drop southward from the Great Basin over Arizona on Monday and then move across New Mexico on Wednesday. This storm system will bring in mid and high level moisture from the west, while a backdoor cold front Sunday night and Monday will be followed by moist east to northeast low level flow through Wednesday. Increasing relative humidity and light winds Monday through Wednesday, accompanied by below normal temperatures, will greatly reduce the chances for critical fire weather conditions through Wednesday. Drier and milder conditions are expected Thursday and Friday with generally light winds. && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for the following zones... NMZ104-107-109. && $$