069 
FXUS63 KTOP 192325
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
625 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

Upper low centered across the Tennessee Valley continues to 
gradually migrate eastward this afternoon with gusty northerly winds 
downstream in the central plains. Northerly winds weaken this 
evening as sfc ridge builds into the area. Clear skies and good 
radiational cooling results in lows tonight dropping into the low 
40s. A few low lying spots along the river valley could be a bit 
cooler in the upper 30s. Temp and dewpoint depressions are far 
enough apart to mitigate any frost concerns at this point.

Warmer temps anticipated Saturday as southerly winds return as a lee 
trough deepens across Colorado. Winds may gust up to 25 mph for 
central areas of Kansas while warm advection increases throughout 
the day. With forecast soundings mixing up to 850 mb, highs in the 
lower 80s are likely across north central Kansas. While not quite as 
warm, upper 70s will stay make for a pleasant spring afternoon 
elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

Broad upper troughing enters the western high plains on Sunday while 
the sfc low elongates itself from southwest Oklahoma through 
southeast Nebraska. Ahead of the sfc low across much of the CWA, 
ample warm, moist flow is characterized by dewpoints reaching near 60 
degrees while highs peak in the low 80s. Current deterring factor 
for thunderstorm development from latest model runs is the strong 
capping inversion in place towards the dryline. The NAM remains the 
outlier between the model suite with the higher dewpoints and weaker 
inversion for isolated convection to form near the dryline towards 
central KS by Sunday evening. However, both the GFS and ECMWF hold 
onto the cap and limit convection to mainly areas north of 
Interstate 70, especially towards southern Nebraska where better 
upper support exists near the upper trough axis. While effective 
bulk shear to 6 KM is not particularly strong at 25 to 30 kts, it is 
still possible for a few stronger updrafts to support large hail and 
damaging wind gusts Sunday evening. 

Precip clears eastward on Monday with mostly cloudy skies as the sfc 
low pushes directly over the area. Southerly winds shift to the 
north behind the low, gusting between 20 and 30 mph in the 
afternoon. Better chances for precipitation arrive from Monday 
evening through Tuesday as a slow moving, southern stream upper 
trough translates across the southern plains. Based on the track of 
the wave and both the GFS and ECMWF keeping the front well south of 
the area , instability is overall lacking with mostly showers 
expected. Dependent upon coverage of showers, temps may vary 
somewhat on Tuesday but still remain the coolest of the week with 
readings forecast in the middle 60s. Clearer skies return by 
Wednesday with highs returning back to and above normal values in 
the 70s for highs and lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

VFR conditions are expected through the period. North winds around
12 kts will become light and variable after 02Z. Winds shift to
the southwest and south by 14Z and increase to around 10 kts by
18Z. 

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Prieto
LONG TERM...Prieto
AVIATION...53