000 
FXUS64 KLUB 191724 AAB
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1224 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours.

Jordan

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 242 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...
Temperatures today will be just a touch below normal as northwest
flow aloft continues between the upper low that moved across the
region Wednesday and an upper ridge over the intermountain west.
This ridge will move overhead Saturday with a sharp increase in
heights and thicknesses and a return to breezy south to southwest
winds. This will result in high temperatures returning to the 80s.
The ridge shifts to the east of the region Saturday evening while
low amplitude upper trough moves quickly across Colorado. Nearly
zonal flow Sunday with similar thicknesses to Saturday and a
veering of winds to southwest to west will help push temperatures
a bit warmer with some locations, mainly off the Caprock, reaching
the lower 90s.

Changes begin Monday as a cold front moves southward through the
Panhandle in the wake of a pair of upper troughs moving across the
central Plains. There remain some differences in the handling of
this front but with some consensus that it stalls somewhere across
the forecast area, possibly pushing back to the north during the
afternoon. Meanwhile, an sharp upper trough takes shape Monday to
our west, eventually becoming a closed low by early Tuesday. As
this low moves slowly southward Tuesday and Tuesday night, the
cold front will also move to the south once again with northeast
to east winds and cooler temperatures spreading across the area.
Lift downstream from the upper low will begin to spread showers
and thunderstorms across the forecast area Monday night with a
likely peak in coverage during the day Tuesday. Have pushed
precipitation chances into the likely category during this peak of
activity. Model differences in handling of the upper low lower
confidence for Wednesday and Thursday, although consensus suggests
chance PoPs for Wednesday and keeping precip mention out for 
Thursday the right route for now.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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