016 FXUS61 KCLE 190619 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Cleveland OH 219 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure near Lake Huron will continue northeast tonight, pulling a cold front south into northwest Ohio. A second low pressure system originating over the lower Mississippi Valley will track northeast along the frontal boundary overnight reaching northeast Ohio on Friday. Low pressure will linger over the region on Saturday before departing to the east on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... With this latest update, adjusted PoPs through 00Z Sunday, particularly for Friday afternoon into Saturday. Also removed thunder through 00Z Sunday except for the eastern half of our CWA on Friday afternoon. Fog over the lake is flowing into lakeshore areas with the northerly wind, so added areas of fog for this. A Special Weather Statement is currently out for Lorain, Cuyahoga, and Lake counties for dense fog near the lakeshore. Will have to monitor the situation for all lakeshore areas to see if we need to upgrade to a Dense Fog Advisory. Previous Discussion... Low pressure located over Lake Huron will continue northeast into Quebec tonight. The area remains in the warm sector late this afternoon with temperatures in the 70s all areas with favorable mixing supporting southwest winds gusting to 30-40 mph. Winds will remain breezy for a few more hours but lose the stronger gusts towards sunset. At 3 pm the cold front extended from near the Saginaw Bay to Central Indiana with a fine line of enhanced showers showing up on radar. SPC mesoanalysis shows little instability of only about 200 J/kg across NW Ohio beneath a thickening deck of clouds. Will be monitoring any thunderstorms that develop along this line and move into the area given the strong wind field in place but overall thinking is the lack of instability will greatly limit any chance of severe weather. Can not rule out a few wind gusts of 40-50 mph. As low pressure continues to the northeast tonight, the front will settle into Northwest Ohio with rain filling in overnight. Meanwhile, a leading piece of energy will ride north up the Mississippi and Ohio Valley overnight ahead of the deepening upper trough that will extend all the way to the Gulf Coast by Friday morning. A secondary surface low will track northeast along the stalled frontal boundary with low pressure approaching Columbus by 12Z Friday. An expansion of rain is expected on the northwest flank of the surface low and did bring back in a chance of thunderstorms across Central and Northeast Ohio ahead of this feature on Friday. The storm prediction center has this area in a marginal risk of severe weather on Friday due to the highly sheared environment and temperatures in the 60s. Best forcing is focused over northeast Ohio during the morning but instability will be limited again. By mid- afternoon, better chances of severe weather will be focused south and west of the area as the surface low moves east. Several rounds of rain are expected between now and Saturday as the frontal boundary remains stalled over portions of northern Ohio. Most models are focusing the highest QPF across northwest Ohio with around 2 inches of rain expected, tapering to closer to 1 inch across Northeast Ohio/Northwest Pennsylvania. Rises are expected on area rivers and several may reach minor flood stage. We will be watching rivers in Northwest Ohio a little more closely but these are starting off fairly low initially. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The short term will be dominated by an upper high centered over the lower Ohio Valley Saturday morning. The system will be fairly stacked with the surface low over central Ohio. Models show deep moisture swirling across the area through the day as the upper system remains nearly stationary. The surface low is weakened by the models but still, believe relatively high pops would be warranted. For now will continue with likely pops Saturday with highest pops shifting to the east half Saturday night. Sunday looking a bit drier as models take the upper low to northern VA and an upper ridge builds east from the upper midwest. Monday the main threat will be moisture streaming east into the area on the north side of a frontal system through the central plains. For now just continued with chance pops as ECMWF is drier than the GFS. Highs in the 50s Saturday. Highs mostly 60s Sunday and Monday && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... For the long term, models diverge with the ECMWF dropping high pressure southeast into the area while the GFS takes the high east through Quebec and takes developing low pressure from the central plains into the Ohio Valley. For now given the uncertainty, will have chance pops and shade closer to the wetter GFS. Highs roughly 65 to 70. && .AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... Low level jet will continue to slowly decrease through the evening with the gusty winds ending after sunset. Have slowed the eastward progression of the showers with this set of TAF's but all locations should see rain by sunrise. The lack of instability and the gradual weakening of the 850 mb low level jet after 00Z should allow for a decrease in the chances of thunder. Will still carry an isolated thunderstorm chance for the overnight hours into Friday morning but believe chances are too low to mention. As the cold front moves eastward across the region winds will shift around to the northwest. The cooler air and moist conditions in the wake of the front will bring ceilings down to at least low end MVFR levels. Some IFR will be possible where the northwest winds are off of Lake Erie and in the higher terrain of the Mid Ohio region. OUTLOOK...Showers under an upper level low may keep conditions non-VFR across the region at times Friday night into Sunday. && .MARINE... The next chance for small craft conditions returns Friday west of Cleveland as north winds increase to 15 to 20 knots. Winds across the central and eastern sections will be lighter being closer to a stationary front. The front will slip south of the lake Friday night allowing winds to increase out of the northeast to around 20 knots on the lake and likely cementing in another small craft advisory for the night and into Saturday for the entire nearshore. Sunday through Tuesday winds will remain below 15 knots. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KEC NEAR TERM...KEC/MM/Saunders SHORT TERM...TK LONG TERM...TK AVIATION...MM MARINE...TK