696 
FXUS63 KILX 190149
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
849 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 849 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

The cold front has shifted well to the southeast of our counties
this evening. Relatively stable air is becoming established 
across our CWA, even in the SE counties. Even with the wave of low
pressure forecast to advance along the cold front, passing by to
the southeast of our counties, there appears to be low probability
for thunderstorms and heavy rain in our Flood Watch counties.  
As a result of the current and expected atmospheric stability
overnight, WPC has indicated they will be removing our CWA from 
the Day 1 Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall. Therefore, we
cancelled the Flood Watch previously in effect for our SE 
counties.

The rain chances and coverage will remain relatively the same, 
just the amount of rainfall will be diminished overnight and 
Friday morning. 

The remainder of the forecast appeared on track. Updated weather
info is already available.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

Cold front has finally made it to the southeast CWA area by 3pm.
However, banded showers behind the front have been moving
southeast over much of central Illinois through the day, finally
clearing the western portions. IR satellite and radar displayed
one wave of light pcpn that moved north over eastern sections
today, but satellite beginning to show next wave of convection to
break off of the major convection complex over the central gulf 
states. 850mb moisture transport flow a bit weaker now moving into
southern IL, but overnight, models develop surface low that moves
north into OH valley and expect the moisture flow to increase 
into the southeast sections. Have therefore continued flood watch 
in the southeast and expanded the area 1 tier of counties to the 
north of current area. Additional rainfall through Friday morning 
of one to 1.5 inches possible with some higher amounts. This will 
make conditions worse on already saturated ground. 

Short range models continue to wrap moisture and overrunning pcpn
into the southeast couple of counties even into Friday. That part
of the forecast will need to be monitored for additional flood
potential. 

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

Some lingering showers Friday night east, and the winds will
intensity as the surface low moves north into TN/KY. Cloudy skies
the rule into Saturday with cool conditions and windy. 

Easter looks to be nice as high moves across area. Sunday night
though brings chance of showers in northern IL with another
frontal zone developing in the area. Front lingers east-west over
IL through Tuesday and then on Wednesday, the system moves into
the plains with cold front moving through IL on Wednesday. Model
solutions vary some on this system and the amount of pcpn with it.
After its passage, it is mainly dry.  

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

A stalled cold front is extending across far SE IL, including clipping
far SE Lawrence County. A wave of low pressure will progress from
SW to NE along the front tonight, helping to increase the
coverage and intensity of the rain showers across areas along and east
of I-55. 

Forecast soundings indicate that MVFR clouds will prevail at the 
TAF sites tonight, with cigs lowering toward IFR later tonight.
Periods of light rain are expected mainly for DEC and CMI.
However, as the low pressure makes its closest approach to our
CWA toward 06z, rain will expand to the west along I-55 for SPI 
and BMI.

Vis is not expected to drop below VFR, and cigs should improve
from MVFR to VFR tomorrow afternoon.

Winds look to diminish for a time this evening, but remain N-NW at
10-15kt. Some gustiness is projected to redevelop as the surface
low approaches, with 15g30KT possible on Friday as the low begins
to pull away to the east.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Goetsch
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Shimon