703 FXUS63 KILX 181739 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1239 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 1032 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019 Morning satellite moisture channel data depicts plume of deep moisture feeding up from gulf over AR into IL. Front has drifted to the east slowly during the morning so far, reachding east central IL. Radar trends show best shower advection from southern IL into the SE CWA, which should continue today, even as the front moves east but slows some by late afternoon. 850mb moisture transport analysis still shows good advection of moisture into southeast IL which will continue today. Flood watch will continue today into tonight. Few bands of light showers behind front over west central and central sections will also continue to move east today. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019 Showers and thunderstorms have overspread the KILX CWA early this morning...with latest radar trends showing the strongest storms focused along/just north of the I-70 corridor. While instability continues to wane, an isolated damaging wind gust will remain possible for the next few hours generally south of a Paris to Taylorville line. Will also keep an eye on rainfall rates, as isolated flash flooding may develop in this area as well. Ongoing convection will shift E/NE of central Illinois by mid-morning, with lingering showers expected for the balance of the day. Meanwhile, low pressure developing over Oklahoma will track northeastward into the Ohio River Valley tonight...bringing a renewed round of rain to the E/SE CWA. Rainfall totals through tonight will range from as little as one quarter to one half inch northwest of the Illinois River near Galesburg...to as much as 2 to 2.50 inches south of I-70. Given the expected QPF, will be issuing a Flood Watch for locations along/southeast of a Martinsville to Flora line from this morning through Friday morning. With over 2 inches of rain expected across this area, rivers will experience significant rises and many low-lying spots will likely flood. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019 Short-wave troughs evident on latest water vapor imagery over Minnesota and north Texas will phase into one long-wave trough...with a closed upper low developing over the lower Ohio River Valley on Friday. This will keep rain showers going across the eastern half of Illinois through Friday night, with some indication that a few showers may linger near the Indiana border into Saturday. Thanks to clouds, showers, and a stiff northerly wind gusting 30-40mph, high temperatures will be held down considerably on Friday. Reading will range from the middle to upper 40s along/east of I-57 where showers will be most prevalent...to the upper 50s in the Illinois River Valley. A chilly night will be in store for Friday night, as skies begin to clear from west to east and winds diminish. Overnight lows will dip into the middle to upper 30s. Will need to keep an eye on possible frost formation along/west of I-55, but think winds will remain strong enough to prevent development at this time. Once the upper low shifts further east, improving weather conditions will be on tap for this weekend. Highs will return to the 60s on Saturday...then will climb well into the 70s for Easter Sunday. After that, a cold front will drop southward into the region Sunday night into Monday, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Due to upper ridging over the southeast CONUS, this boundary will become stationary over the area and serve as the focusing mechanism for another round of precip Tuesday into Wednesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019 Radar shows banding showers over central IL this morning behind the front. Front has reached a Shebly to Vermilion county line by noon. Some MVFR vsb briefly with the showers behind front, but for most part they are VFR. As for cigs, MVFR cigs over region and progs have a brief lifting of the cigs to VFR over the western TAF sites by evening, and then overnight cigs lower to MVFR again. As for the east, radar shows advection of next pcpn up from southern IL into eastern sections and that expected to keep some lower cigs and vsb in region. Overnight, as low deepens and moves into OH valley, another complex of showers expected to move into eastern sections and so cigs and vsb will drop again, before all sites improve to VFR on Friday morning. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Friday morning for ILZ063-067-068-071>073. && $$ UPDATE...Goetsch SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM...Barnes AVIATION...Goetsch