121 FXUS61 KCAR 171519 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1119 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure across Quebec will build into Maine this evening and will move to the south of Nova Scotia Thursday. A warm front will cross the region Thursday night and will be followed by a mild and humid air mass Friday into Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 11:20 AM Update...The sky remains sunny across the area. Had to raise temps a couple degrees Downeast through late morning. Otherwise, no major changes this hour. Previous discussion: High pressure across Quebec will build into Maine today cresting over the region around midnight tonight. The high will retreat to the south of Nova Scotia by 12Z Thu. There will be some clouds that linger into the morning, especially across the eastern half of the FA. All areas should become mostly sunny by this afternoon. It will remain a bit breezy, although not as windy as Tuesday. The strongest wind will be in the morning and early afternoon, with the wind diminishing mid- late afternoon as the high moves closer to the region. The air mass moderates in the low levels with 925H temps about +2c warmer this afternoon compared to yesterday. The combo of a slightly warmer air mass and a lot more in the way of sunshine will lead to a seasonable afternoon with highs in the m/u 40s north to the mid 50s Down East. Tonight will be clear and cold with lows mostly in the 20s north with upper 20s to low 30s Down East. The normally colder broad northwest valleys where there is still significant snow may drop into the teens, and did make some adjustments to lower the low temperatures a bit. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A strong area of high pressure will continue east into the open Atlantic on Thursday. Meanwhile, a complex area of low pressure will slowly approach from the west. An increasingly moist southerly flow between these two systems can be expected Thursday and Thursday night. Thursday will start off dry, but showers are expected later in the day as a warm front lifts north across the region. The front will be north of the region Thursday night. Thursday night will be a mainly cloudy night with a few showers, along with patchy fog and drizzle, especially across downeast areas. Friday will be a mainly cloudy and unseasonably mild day. With the moist air mass in place, a few showers will be possible, especially across the north. Highs away from the coast will climb into the mid 50s to near 60 degrees. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The weather pattern stays unsettled right through the weekend as the closed upper low remains to our west, and high pressure remains to our east Friday night through Saturday. A moist southerly flow between these systems keeps the threat of showers going right through Saturday. The upper low will transition to an open wave Saturday night and then move northeast across the region on Sunday. This will keep a continued threat for showers across the region. A drier weather pattern returns for early next week. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR expected today and tonight at the northern and eastern Maine terminals. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions early Thursday will be followed by occasional MVFR/IFR Thursday night through Sunday in showers, patchy fog and drizzle at times. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Have cancelled the SCA with this update. The wind and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels through tonight. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas will remain below SCA levels on Thursday. Winds/seas will then increase to SCA levels Thursday night, and possibly gales on Friday. Visibility will be reduced in showers, drizzle, and patchy fog Thursday night through Friday night. && .HYDROLOGY... The main focus the next 24 hours will be on the far northern Maine Rivers along parts of the Aroostook and Saint John Rivers. The water levels continue to rise at the Washburn gage which is now at moderate flood stage. Flooding will likely continue on Gardner Creek Road, and the water may threaten some structures. Slow rises are expected to continue until the ice gets flushed out. Water levels have dropped several feet at Fort Kent this morning and reports on the Aroostook County Flood Watch page indicate that the jam has finally flushed from Fort Kent to Madawaska with just a little jamming around the islands in Frenchville. Will keep the flood watch going today across northern Aroostook County as new jams and pre-existing jams may result in rapid fluctuations and possible flooding. The Mattawamkeag River at Mattawamkeag continues to slowly rise and is approaching minor flood stage early this morning. The river will slowly rise over the next 24 hours and there could be some flooding by later today or tonight along the Bancroft Road between Wytopitlock and Danforth. No new information from calls to law enforcement early this morning on the flooding at Island Falls, and until there is updated information that Route 2 has been re-opened will maintain the flood advisory. Unseasonably warm and humid conditions will continue late week and into the weekend. Showers and possibly a heavier band of rain Sunday will continue to pose a flooding risk. Greatest concerns at this time are for the Aroostook, Big Black, Allagash, St. John and Fish Rivers over the north where lots of snow remains over the highlands. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Flood Watch until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for MEZ001-002. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...CB Short Term...Duda Long Term...Duda Aviation...CB/Duda Marine...CB/Duda Hydrology...CB/Dude