140 FXUS64 KLUB 170746 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 246 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019 .DISCUSSION... Gulf moisture continued to advect north early this morning courtesy of a 55 knot low level jet as sampled by regional VWPs. Stratus was found expanding north through the Concho Valley with a second axis now emerging over the Permian Basin. This latter area should reach the Lubbock area near or before sunrise, but the shallow depth to this stratus implies it should erode swiftly by mid morning at the latest. Otherwise, the dryline at 2 AM was running SW to NE across our northwest counties and should remain largely unchanged this morning as the LLJ veers SW and runs parallel to the boundary. Aloft, SW winds were already amping up ahead of a respectable upper low now churning east over southern Arizona. We still favor the more robust GFS for winds this afternoon, particularly across our southern zones where a 25-30 knot band of 850 mb winds will unfold to the southeast of the approaching low. This could present a low-end wind advisory with some blowing dust, but as a whole the kinematics are pretty marginal and should keep advisory level winds more spotty than widespread. At the very least these gusty SW winds will sweep the dryline east of the region this afternoon at which time a stout mid-level cold pocket will arrive from the west with the upper low. Despite marginal boundary layer moisture, steepening lapse rates aloft and lift within the low spell a good opportunity for isolated to scattered high based showers and some storms given a couple hundred J/kg of CAPE. The greatest concentration of precip is still favored in the southern Panhandle later this afternoon once a cold front bolsters lift under the deformation axis of the low. Considering this low's height changes will remain pretty neutral today and tonight, we don't expect precip to flourish southward too much behind the low tonight - at least not as bullish as the NAM which appears to be suffering from some convective feedback. Another window for some advisory level winds could open this evening following FROPA, but again the coverage and duration appear too marginal for any headlines at this time. Behind the upper low, deep northerly flow develops tomorrow morning complete with very breezy N winds (strongest off the Caprock). Cool surface high pressure arriving Thursday night may offer a light freeze opportunity in our NW zones, but the main story hereafter remains much milder thicknesses heading into the weekend behind a progressive ridge. Stout thermal ridging by Saturday looks capable of highs in the 90s for much of the region, but as soon as Sunday this thermal ridge should begin compressing southward ahead of a sharp cold front. The ECMWF is the most bullish with this front with FROPA occurring nearly 24 hours sooner than the GFS. The culprit for this spread concerns the timing of a Pacific trough in zonal flow which is not clear at this time. As such, we are sticking with a blended and ensemble approach which produces cooler highs for Easter, but not as cool as the ECMWF. Some PoPs remain in this cycle for Monday provided additional minor troughs can interact favorably with the lingering elevated baroclinic zone. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 93