426 FXUS64 KLUB 170438 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1138 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2019 .AVIATION... Storm system over Arizona at press time will move eastward, crossing the southern Texas Panhandle this evening. The track of a surface low ahead of the main storm system will be key in regards to the wind speed forecast. Currently favor a more southerly solution that would lead to less gusty winds at the terminals today, although any shift northward will result in an increase to wind speeds, especially at KLBB and KPVW. Other item of note is the potential for a brief window of low clouds toward or just after sunrise. Have inserted a mention in this forecast at each terminal. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 333 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2019/ DISCUSSION... Southwest flow aloft blankets the region this afternoon in advance of a low pressure system crossing the southwest U.S. coast and gathering tonight across Arizona. This system will continue east Wednesday spreading stronger flow across our area on Wednesday and increasing lift late in the day. Southern parts of our area will be most prone to increasing southwest wind Wednesday while mainly northern areas will benefit from potential showers or thunder late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Behind this system, northerly flow will send a cold front through the area early Thursday morning. Solutions agree on the order of 10 to 11 millibar rises per 6 hours pressing southward out of the Panhandle that could lead at least briefly to near wind advisory speeds early Thursday morning favoring the extreme southwest Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains. Winds then should taper until a little after daybreak Thursday when wind speeds again may edge into or near Wind Advisory levels, this time mainly from the southern South Plains into the Rolling Plains. A quiet and cool night will follow Thursday night, then progressive upper level high pressure ridging will bring on a solid warmup into the 80s over the weekend. Passing disturbances could lead to dry, warm, and breezy conditions on the Caprock Saturday and again Sunday. Another more questionable upper trough may move into the area early next week with cooler conditions and at least a low chance of thunder until confidence builds further. RMcQueen FIRE WEATHER... Gusty southwest breezes were developing this afternoon across the southwest Texas Panhandle and western South Plains. This area hasn't benefited as much from recent rain systems and thus is more prone to wildfire spread potential. A Rangeland Fire Danger statement remains in effect until 8 pm this evening. Gusty west to southwest winds Wednesday will favor the southern South Plains into the Rolling Plains, where rain systems have been much more beneficial. But these winds could spill closer to the New Mexico border as well where elevated fire danger is somewhat more plausible but still not expected Wednesday. RMcQueen && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 07