923 FXUS63 KIND 170224 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 1020 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2019 .UPDATE... The AVIATION section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 330 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2019 Dry and warm weather will continue through Wednesday. Then, a frontal system and trailing upper system will bring unsettled weather back to central Indiana late this week. Cooler temperatures will arrive briefly in the wake of the front before warmer temperatures return Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /Tonight/... Issued at 330 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2019 Could see an increase in mid and high clouds, per satellite and model rh time sections, toward morning as an upper upper ridge moves across. Otherwise, southerly low level flow will result in mild overnight lows in the upper 50s per the blend. && .SHORT TERM /Wednesday through Friday/... Issued at 330 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2019 12z GFS and ECMWF in good agreement that a cold front will move across Thursday 18z-24z. The front, trailing upper trough and increased moisture and shear will result in widespread showers and a few thunderstorms Thursday and Thursday night. Would not rule out a few strong or severe storms Thursday afternoon and evening per the SPC Day3 Marginal Risk. However, limited instability precludes a higher risk. Temperatures will be much cooler in the wake of the cold front on Friday. A few showers are expected to linger with the upper trough moving through. && .LONG TERM (Friday Night Through Tuesday)... Issued at 246 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2019 Models are close enough that the model blend initialization was accepted for most items. An exiting upper low will bring chances for showers on Friday night into Saturday. An upper trough and surface low pressure system will bring more chances for showers (and some thunderstorms at times) from Sunday afternoon through Tuesday. Cool temperatures on Saturday will give way to above normal readings Sunday and Monday, with closer to normal by Tuesday. && .AVIATION (Discussion for the 170300Z IND TAF Update)... Issued at 1020 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2019 Lowered wind speeds to 6 knots based on trends. Previous discussion follows... Issued at 640 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2019 High confidence in VFR conditions through the TAF period. Should only see mid and high clouds. Winds will be south and southwest 6 to 10 knots through 20z Wednesday and will increase to near 15 knots thereafter. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MK NEAR TERM...MK SHORT TERM...MK LONG TERM....50 AVIATION...MK