945 FXUS61 KCLE 162037 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Cleveland OH 437 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front extending from low pressure over the Plains will settle south tonight then lift back north on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the low pressure system will move east along the front on Wednesday night crossing the Upper Great Lakes on Thursday. A secondary area of low pressure will develop over the southern Plains on Thursday and move through the Ohio Valley on Friday, lingering into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A warm front extending from low pressure over Kansas has moved north to near Lake Erie this afternoon. Portions of Ashtabula, Erie, and Crawford Counties remain north of the warm front with temperatures in the 50s while Cleveland has warmed to 70 degrees as of 4 PM. An area of showers continues to clip eastern portions of Erie County PA where rain has been ongoing with overrunning along the 925-850mb front. The surface front is expected to settle back south to almost the route 30 corridor overnight with a cool northeast flow off Lake Erie bringing lows back to the low to mid 40s while areas south of the front remain in the mid 50s. An expansion of clouds is expected overnight as moisture advection continues aloft. Several of the models continue to show a few showers possible overnight and into the day on Wednesday as the baroclinic zone sinks south. Lowered pops to just 20-30 percent near and just north of the front for tonight and as it lifts back north on Wednesday. Highs on Wednesday will be similar to today in most areas except near Toledo where the easterly flow will keep temperatures in the 50s for most of the day. By Wednesday, low pressure will finally track out of the Plains towards the Upper Great Lakes, lifting the warm front well north of the area. Temperatures will be mild on Wednesday night with lows near 60 degrees for most areas. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The entire region will be in the warm sector on Thursday as moisture levels increase through the day. Winds will become gusty by afternoon. If we see a decent amount of sunshine on Thursday we may need a wind advisory across the west. The cold front will move into the region Thursday evening with showers and thunderstorms expected along and ahead of it. There will be plenty of jet energy Thursday night but the amount of instability is uncertain. So at this point we cant rule out a couple strong to maybe severe thunderstorms. The cold front should drag the showers east Friday morning but the upper level trough will still be over the area so there is uncertainty on how many afternoon into Friday night showers there will be. Best chances will likely be across the southeastern CWA. Temperatures will warm nicely on Thursday with highs well into the 70s. Cooler in the wake of the front on Friday with highs mostly in the 50s, a few 60s across the east. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Models continue to indicate an upper level low will develop just south of the Ohio River by Saturday morning. This should allow for at least scattered coverage of showers by afternoon then continuing into the evening. Mid level lapse rates may be steep enough get a few thunderstorms to develop. Will cover this potential with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the grids. The upper low will only slowly drift eastward on Sunday so with showers likely lingering across NW PA into Sunday afternoon. Models then struggle on how to handle the next piece of energy that will move toward the region. We may see some warm advection showers develop as early as Sunday night. However these chances will increase as we move into Monday and Tuesday. There does look as if there will be a lull at some point Monday night into early Tuesday but this will all hinge on how strong the high over eastern Canada becomes. Saturday will be the cool day of the long term with highs only in the 50s. Warmer Sunday into Monday. Monday should see highs into the 60s, even a few 70s across the southwest CWA. SLightly cooler on Tuesday with highs ranging from the mid to upper 50s near the lake to the mid 60s south. Lows each night will remain warm enough to avoid any concerns about frost. && .AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/... VFR conditions are ongoing at the start of the TAF period with scattered showers impacting ERI at times this afternoon. A brief reduction to MVFR is possible with any heavier showers. Otherwise breezy southwest winds are expected for most sites today south of a warm front then extends across Lake Erie to near ERI. This frontal boundary will settle back south overnight with winds near the lake shifting to the northeast. Lower ceilings are expected to develop north of the frontal boundary with widespread MVFR developing between 03-06Z and pockets of IFR possible. Otherwise VFR ceilings below 5K feet expected to expand south of the front with a few scattered showers moving through tonight. These will be hard to time and only included a vicinity shower at the more favorable locations. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible into Wednesday, especially at KERI and KYNG. Non-VFR returns in showers and possible thunderstorms late Thursday and Friday. && .MARINE... Warm front has lifted to a Detroit to just north of Erie line this afternoon. This boundary will be nudged southward overnight as high pressure ridges southward from Quebec. As low pressure moves into the central Great Lakes early Thursday the warm front will lift north of the lake with increasing southerly winds. Winds may be close to the 21 knots needed for a small craft advisory and will be evaluated over the next couple days. A cold front will cross the lake Thursday night into early Friday with northerly winds in its wake. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KEC NEAR TERM...KEC SHORT TERM...MM LONG TERM...MM AVIATION...KEC MARINE...MM